A methodology for the selection of a paradigm of reasoning under uncertainty in expert system development

The aim of this thesis is to develop a methodology for the selection of a paradigm of reasoning under uncertainty for the expert system developer. This is important since practical information on how to select a paradigm of reasoning under uncertainty is not generally available. The thesis explores the role of uncertainty in an expert system and considers the process of reasoning under uncertainty. The possible sources of uncertainty are investigated and prove to be crucial to some aspects of the methodology. A variety of Uncertainty Management Techniques (UMTs) are considered, including numeric, symbolic and hybrid methods. Considerably more information is found in the literature on numeric methods, than the latter two. Methods that have been proposed for comparing UMTs are studied and comparisons reported in the literature are summarised. Again this concentrates on numeric methods, since there is more literature available. The requirements of a methodology for the selection of a UMT are considered. A manual approach to the selection process is developed. The possibility of extending the boundaries of knowledge stored in the expert system by including meta-data to describe the handling of uncertainty in an expert system is then considered. This is followed by suggestions taken from the literature for automating the process of selection. Finally consideration is given to whether the objectives of the research have been met and recommendations are made for the next stage in researching a methodology for the selection of a paradigm of reasoning under uncertainty in expert system development.

Grantor dc:publisher

Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia

Year dc:date

1998

Author dc:creator

• Campbell, Vivian

• Database management
• Uncertainty
• Information theory
• Expert systems
• Computer science
• Artificial intelligence
• Methodology.
• Computer Sciences

Repository record dc:identifier

https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/980

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:ro.ecu.edu.au:theses-1981