Generating a climatology of surface solar radiation over the UK with application to wheat yield prediction

A UK climatology of daily mean Surface Incoming Shortwave (SIS) solar radiation was generated for the period 1983-2010 using a combination of satellite based data from the Climate Data Record (CDR) of SIS provided by the Climate Monitoring Satellite Applications Facility (CMSAF) and by MeteoSwiss. The combined version of these datasets has a 3km spatial resolution and it is currently the best available, long-term homogeneous satellite-based climate data record of daily surface solar radiation. The SIS climatology enabled an investigation of UK inter-annual variability and long term trends. The impact of synoptic scale weather typing on SIS accumulations was analysed using a combination of daily satellite based data from CMSAF and daily weather types from the GrossWetterLagen classification (GWL). Solar radiation drives photosynthesis in crops, highlighting the importance of knowing the spatial and temporal distribution of this valuable resource. Harnessing both state-of-the-art satellite based SIS estimates and model based temperature records enabled an investigation of the contributory effect of the variable radiation climate to the UK ‘yield plateau’ in wheat which has been widely observed over the last twenty years. Trend analyses do not support the theory that the observed yield plateau may be completely explained by solar radiation variability, since the main wheat growing area of England exhibits a general 3-5% increase of SIS accumulations during a fixed grain fill window over the 1994-2010 period. However, analysis performed to quantify the statistical relationship between SIS recorded during grain fill and actual yields from the HGCA Recommended Lists (RL) trial sites reveals encouraging results when controlling for soil type and previous crop

Name dc:type.qualificationname

other

Level dc:type.qualificationlevel

masters

Grantor dc:publisher.institution

University of East Anglia

Year dc:date.issued

2014

Author dc:creator

• Gkousarov, Theodoros G.

Language dc:language

en