This study explored the Net Present Value (NPV) in dollar terms of draft pick slots in the Major League Rule IV Draft. In order to accomplish this, the cumulative performance of players selected in each slot within the draft was evaluated and brought to the Present Value of the time they were selected using a discount rate. The performance of the players was determined using the baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric. It is intuitive that earlier draft picks are the most valuable; however, it is unclear how quickly the value of draft picks decline. This research demonstrates that the decline in NPV is rapid for the first 40 draft selections before the pace slows. Around the 116th selection, draft pick slots level off and experience little decline, as teams are less able to determine the value of the players’ talents. There is substantial difference between the top 5 picks in the draft and the draft picks following the 116th selection, as the top 5 picks are worth in excess of $28 million each, while the later selections level off around $2 million each.
","abstract_html":"<p>This study explored the Net Present Value (NPV) in dollar terms of draft pick slots in the Major League Rule IV Draft. In order to accomplish this, the cumulative performance of players selected in each slot within the draft was evaluated and brought to the Present Value of the time they were selected using a discount rate. The performance of the players was determined using the baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric. It is intuitive that earlier draft picks are the most valuable; however, it is unclear how quickly the value of draft picks decline. This research demonstrates that the decline in NPV is rapid for the first 40 draft selections before the pace slows. Around the 116<sup>th</sup> selection, draft pick slots level off and experience little decline, as teams are less able to determine the value of the players’ talents. There is substantial difference between the top 5 picks in the draft and the draft picks following the 116<sup>th</sup> selection, as the top 5 picks are worth in excess of $28 million each, while the later selections level off around $2 million each.</p>","abstract_has_math":true,"creators":["CACCHIONE, ANTHONY"],"institution":null,"degree_name":null,"degree_level":"Thesis","degree_discipline":"Economics and Business","degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":["Robert Mellman","Kevin Foster"],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2018,"date_issued":"2018-01-01T08:00:00Z","date_published":"2018-01-01T08:00:00Z","updated_at":"2026-07-24T01:57:14Z","subjects":["MLB","MLB Draft","Discounted Cash Flow","Finance and Financial Management","Sports Management","Statistics and Probability"],"languages":[],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"https://academicworks.cuny.edu/cc_etds_theses/754","outbound_label":"Repository record","outbound_source":"dc:identifier"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor","label":"Contributor","values":["Robert Mellman","Kevin Foster"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["CACCHIONE, ANTHONY"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2018-05-19T07:00:00Z"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Economics and Business"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["Thesis"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["MLB","MLB Draft","Discounted Cash Flow","Finance and Financial Management","Sports Management","Statistics and Probability"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["https://academicworks.cuny.edu/cc_etds_theses/754"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["This study explored the Net Present Value (NPV) in dollar terms of draft pick slots in the Major League Rule IV Draft. In order to accomplish this, the cumulative performance of players selected in each slot within the draft was evaluated and brought to the Present Value of the time they were selected using a discount rate. The performance of the players was determined using the baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric. It is intuitive that earlier draft picks are the most valuable; however, it is unclear how quickly the value of draft picks decline. This research demonstrates that the decline in NPV is rapid for the first 40 draft selections before the pace slows. Around the 116th selection, draft pick slots level off and experience little decline, as teams are less able to determine the value of the players’ talents. There is substantial difference between the top 5 picks in the draft and the draft picks following the 116th selection, as the top 5 picks are worth in excess of $28 million each, while the later selections level off around $2 million each.
"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["MLB Rule IV Draft: Valuing Draft Pick Slots"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor":["Robert Mellman","Kevin Foster"],"dc:creator":["CACCHIONE, ANTHONY"],"dc:date.available":["2018-05-19T07:00:00Z"],"dc:description.abstract":["This study explored the Net Present Value (NPV) in dollar terms of draft pick slots in the Major League Rule IV Draft. In order to accomplish this, the cumulative performance of players selected in each slot within the draft was evaluated and brought to the Present Value of the time they were selected using a discount rate. The performance of the players was determined using the baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric. It is intuitive that earlier draft picks are the most valuable; however, it is unclear how quickly the value of draft picks decline. This research demonstrates that the decline in NPV is rapid for the first 40 draft selections before the pace slows. Around the 116th selection, draft pick slots level off and experience little decline, as teams are less able to determine the value of the players’ talents. There is substantial difference between the top 5 picks in the draft and the draft picks following the 116th selection, as the top 5 picks are worth in excess of $28 million each, while the later selections level off around $2 million each.
"],"dc:identifier":["https://academicworks.cuny.edu/cc_etds_theses/754"],"dc:subject":["MLB","MLB Draft","Discounted Cash Flow","Finance and Financial Management","Sports Management","Statistics and Probability"],"dc:title":["MLB Rule IV Draft: Valuing Draft Pick Slots"],"thesis:degree_discipline":["Economics and Business"],"thesis:degree_level":["Thesis"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-24T01:57:14Z"}