An econometric model of determinants of visitor use on western national forests

The accuracy of visitor use data from the National Visitor Use Monitoring Program (NVUM) allows for testing the relationship between public land visitation and individual site characteristics and facilities. In an attempt to predict visitation on both BLM and USFS lands, forty National Forests in the Western US were chosen for their spatial and landscape resemblance to BLM lands. Using multiple regressions, facility and landscape characteristics have a statistically significant relationship with the four recreation types in NVUM data: Day use developed sites (DUDS), Overnight use developed sites (OUDS), General Forest Area (GFA), and Wilderness. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of prediction calculated using ten out of sample National Forests for Wilderness was lowest at 69%, with OUDS, DUDS and GFA higher at 93%, 103% and 115% respectively. As an alternative method to estimate the predictive power, stepwise procedures were applied to all forty observations. These resulting models were used to construct a spreadsheet calculator that provides an annual visitation prediction for a USFS or BLM land.

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science (M.S.)

Level thesis:degree_level

Masters

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Agricultural and Resource Economics

Grantor dc:publisher

Colorado State University. Libraries

Year dc:date.issued

2012

Authors dc:creator

• Kasberg, Kevin, author
• Loomis, John, advisor
• Koontz, Stephen, committee member
• Newman, Peter, committee member

• BLM
• visitation estimation
• recreation
• national forests

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see https://libguides.colostate.edu/copyright.

Language dc:language.iso

eng, English

Identifier URI

https://doi.org/10.25675/3.018844

Identifier

ETDF2012500055AGRE

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:mountainscholar.org:10217/65325