The development of a multisectoral model for the Thai economy (MUTE)

The MUTE model is a multisectoral model developed for the Thai economy. The structure of the MUTE model resembles 1NFORUM type models consisting of 3 main modules, namely, (1) the real side which estimates 7 components of the final demand, (2) the price - income side which calculates the 5 value added components, and (3) the accountant which includes the identity equations and some important behavioral equation in order to link both the real side and the price - income side. The major difference of the MUTE model from the INFORUM models, especially a Thai Interindustry Dynamic Model (TIDY) is the inclusion of a dummy variable representing the event of the political disorder, which is widely believed as one of the non-economic factors affecting the performances of the economy. Moreover, the use of the time-series technique called AICc to forecast some series (when the explanatory variables are non-stationary and the cointegration test reports the nonexistence of the cointegrating vector), the use of the RAS technique instead of Across the Row method in estimating the direct input requirement matrices, and the application of the ADF and the cointegration tests for all equations are among the new contributions aimed at improving the model reliability. Finally, the model is employed to forecast the performances of the Thai economy from 2005 to 2020 under the impacts of the Baht appreciation and the political disorder. The results show that these two impacts will adversely cause the growth rate of GDP to slowdown. The Baht appreciation against U.S. dollar worsens the net export, while the political disorder causes both consumers and producers to lose their confidences in the Thai economy, which results in the reduction in the personal consumption expenditure and the gross fixed capital formation. However, both impacts do not affect the income and output structures of the Thai economy. The Thai economy still moves toward the industrialized country by reckoning on manufacturing and service sectors as the main sources for generating income and employment with or without the presence of these two impacts.

Name thesis:degree_name

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

Level thesis:degree_level

Doctoral

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Economics

Grantor dc:publisher

Colorado State University. Libraries

Year dc:date.issued

2008

Authors dc:creator

• Suebpongsakorn, Auttapol, author
• Fan, Chuen-Mei, advisor

• economic model
• input-output table
• interindustry model
• political disorder
• Thai economic model
• Thai economy
• Thailand

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see https://libguides.colostate.edu/copyright.

Language dc:language.iso

eng, English

Identifier URI

https://doi.org/10.25675/3.018947

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:mountainscholar.org:10217/237975