An Examination of Post-Pandemic Enrollment Declines in California’s Public Education System
type: CreativeWork
description: The persistent decline in enrollment in California public schools presents complex and far-reaching challenges, impacting budgets, staffing, and student outcomes. These challenges have been further compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted K-12 education nationwide. As students were sent home and families navigated prolonged school closures, the federal government responded with unprecedented funding to public schools, aimed at reengaging students safely, addressing academic losses, and mitigating socio-emotional impacts. While this temporary relief funding provided much-needed resources, it also allowed states and school districts broad discretion in spending, with little consistency or oversight. Investments in infrastructure, staffing, and programs varied significantly across districts, leaving California public schools to face a looming question: What happens when the federal funding expires, and districts are left with fewer resources amidst declining enrollment, a shrinking population, and a declining birthrate?This dissertation examines these issues through the lens of Systems Theory, applying a case study methodology to analyze the interconnected effects of declining enrollment on budgets, staffing, and student outcomes in the Long Beach Unified School District (LBUSD). Over the past decade, LBUSD has experienced a 17 percent decline in enrollment, mirroring statewide trends influenced by demographic shifts, housing affordability challenges, and family outmigration. This study explores how these trends, exacerbated by the expiration of federal relief funds, create systemic ripple effects across key areas of district operations. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative data, such as enrollment trends, budget reports, and standardized test scores, with qualitative insights from interviews with district and county administrators and staff. Findings reveal that declining enrollment leads to cascading challenges, including …
abstract: The persistent decline in enrollment in California public schools presents complex and far-reaching challenges, impacting budgets, staffing, and student outcomes. These challenges have been further compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted K-12 education nationwide. As students were sent home and families navigated prolonged school closures, the federal government responded with unprecedented funding to public schools, aimed at reengaging students safely, addressing academic losses, and mitigating socio-emotional impacts. While this temporary relief funding provided much-needed resources, it also allowed states and school districts broad discretion in spending, with little consistency or oversight. Investments in infrastructure, staffing, and programs varied significantly across districts, leaving California public schools to face a looming question: What happens when the federal funding expires, and districts are left with fewer resources amidst declining enrollment, a shrinking population, and a declining birthrate?This dissertation examines these issues through the lens of Systems Theory, applying a case study methodology to analyze the interconnected effects of declining enrollment on budgets, staffing, and student outcomes in the Long Beach Unified School District (LBUSD). Over the past decade, LBUSD has experienced a 17 percent decline in enrollment, mirroring statewide trends influenced by demographic shifts, housing affordability challenges, and family outmigration. This study explores how these trends, exacerbated by the expiration of federal relief funds, create systemic ripple effects across key areas of district operations. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative data, such as enrollment trends, budget reports, and standardized test scores, with qualitative insights from interviews with district and county administrators and staff. Findings reveal that declining enrollment leads to cascading challenges, including …
author: Cummins, Ryan J.
keywords: California public education, COVID-19, Declining enrollment, Public education, School finance, Systems Theory, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences
date published: 2025-01-01T08:00:00Z
date modified: 2026-07-24T01:41:17Z
provider: Claremont Graduate University
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: Claremont Graduate University