An Examination of Post-Pandemic Enrollment Declines in California’s Public Education System
The persistent decline in enrollment in California public schools presents complex and far-reaching challenges, impacting budgets, staffing, and student outcomes. These challenges have been further compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted K-12 education nationwide. As students were sent home and families navigated prolonged school closures, the federal government responded with unprecedented funding to public schools, aimed at reengaging students safely, addressing academic losses, and mitigating socio-emotional impacts. While this temporary relief funding provided much-needed resources, it also allowed states and school districts broad discretion in spending, with little consistency or oversight. Investments in infrastructure, staffing, and programs varied significantly across districts, leaving California public schools to face a looming question: What happens when the federal funding expires, and districts are left with fewer resources amidst declining enrollment, a shrinking population, and a declining birthrate?This dissertation examines these issues through the lens of Systems Theory, applying a case study methodology to analyze the interconnected effects of declining enrollment on budgets, staffing, and student outcomes in the Long Beach Unified School District (LBUSD). Over the past decade, LBUSD has experienced a 17 percent decline in enrollment, mirroring statewide trends influenced by demographic shifts, housing affordability challenges, and family outmigration. This study explores how these trends, exacerbated by the expiration of federal relief funds, create systemic ripple effects across key areas of district operations. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative data, such as enrollment trends, budget reports, and standardized test scores, with qualitative insights from interviews with district and county administrators and staff. Findings reveal that declining enrollment leads to cascading challenges, including reduced funding tied to California’s Average Daily Attendance (ADA) model, which forces districts to make difficult decisions about staffing and program cuts. The expiration of federal relief funds further intensifies these challenges, highlighting the inadequacy of temporary measures in addressing long-term structural issues. Using Systems Theory as an analytical framework, this study underscores the interconnectedness of these issues, demonstrating how reductions in one area, such as enrollment, trigger feedback loops that exacerbate challenges across the entire system. For example, reduced funding leads to staff reductions, larger class sizes, and diminished support services, all of which negatively impact student outcomes. By situating the analysis within a systems-based perspective, this research contributes to the broader understanding of how demographic, economic, and policy shifts impact public education.
California public education, COVID-19, Declining enrollment, Public education, School finance, Systems Theory, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences
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