The US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies

<p>This dissertation investigates the spillover effects of US monetary policy on international capital inflows to emerging market economies (EMEs) from 2003Q1 to 2019Q4, with a focus on quantitative easing (QE) and its normalization phases, including both tapering and quantitative tightening (QT). Using a panel data model with fixed effects, this dissertation finds that the spillover effects of US monetary policy during the QE period have a more pronounced effect on EME capital inflows than do those during the normalization period, where the effects are relatively muted. Second, decomposing the normalization phase into tapering and QT periods reveals that the impact on EME capital inflows during the tapering period is significantly lower than that during the QT period. Although the Fed’s 2013 tapering communication affected EME financial markets in terms of exchange rates and interest rates, there is no evidence that the actual tapering process led to a significant reduction in EME capital inflows. In contrast, during the subsequent QT period, US monetary policy had statistically and economically significant effects on EME capital inflows, specifically for portfolio and FDI inflows. Finally, this dissertation highlights several important determinants influencing EME capital inflows, particularly global risk aversion, domestic political stability, and expected investment returns driven by EME macroeconomic fundamentals.</p>

Name thesis:degree_name

Economics, PhD

Level thesis:degree_level

Open Access Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

School of Social Science, Politics, and Evaluation

Year dc:date.available

2025

Author dc:creator

• Zhang, Tianyuan

Contributors dc:contributor

• Pierangelo De Pace
• Levan Efremidze

• Emerging market economies
• Global risk aversion
• International capital flows
• US monetary policy transmission
• Economics

Repository record dc:identifier

https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgu_etd/980

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:scholarship.claremont.edu:cgu_etd-2002