The Short-term and Long-term Relationship between Public Sentiment and Insurgency Violence in 3 Southern Provinces of Thailand

<p>This dissertation is aimed to developing and improving the theory on the intrastate conflict and public sentiment as well as the conventional wisdom on the conflict study as well as developing new analytical framework for studying intrastate conflict and for informing policymakers to deliver or adjust for a better policy to cope with this problem. The empirical case study is an insurgency conflict in three Southern provinces of Thailand. The study employs multivariate time-series analysis, namely Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and empirical system dynamics analysis, namely Convergent CrossMapping (CCM). The results show that the relationship between public sentiment and the insurgency violence are not empirically supported by all three analysis. The political demographic influence on the violence are empirically supported in all three analysis, especially in long-term relationship. Surprisingly, the socio-economic factors are not consistently supported by the empirical analysis. The results from CCM also suggest the relationship between political demographics and level of violence from insurgency is non-linear and the conventional statistical estimation can be limited in its estimation.</p>

Name thesis:degree_name

Political Science, PhD

Level thesis:degree_level

Open Access Dissertation

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

School of Social Science, Politics, and Evaluation

Year dc:date.available

2019

Author dc:creator

• Sangmanee, Domrongphol

Contributors dc:contributor

• Jacek Kugler
• Zining Yang

• Conflict
• Convergent Cross-Mapping
• Thailand
• Time-series Data Analysis
• Political Science

Repository record dc:identifier

https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgu_etd/330

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:scholarship.claremont.edu:cgu_etd-1384