Valuation bias in the stock market
type: CreativeWork
description: In our first study (Chapter 3) we investigate valuation bias in the UK stock market by examining the valuation of new stocks relative to survivor stocks as new stocks have relatively higher valuations with the valuation gap increases in bullish markets and vice versa. The value explanatory model and individual fundamental factor tests developed provide evidence of a negative significant relation between age and value. This does not seem to be backed by any known economic rationale given that new stocks showed lower profitability levels, no concrete evidence of materialised higher growth or lower risk which is inconsistent with their relatively higher valuations indicating that valuation bias could well be present. The evidence in the first study does not imply that valuation of survivor stocks is rational or otherwise. Hence, in our second study (Chapter 4), we seek evidence on valuation bias at the stock market aggregate level where the occurrence of major divergences between stock prices on one side and economic growth and equity invested capital on the other, followed by subsequent price falls (corrections) is evident. The evidence obtained shows: (a) low earnings yields using theoretical and empirical models under plausible scenarios, (b) no changes in corporate profitability pattern that could explain stock price levels, (c) a cyclical gap between implied growth and economic growth, (d) that implied growth was almost always higher than both economic and earnings realised growth, and finally (e) the implied average equity risk premium compared with the evidence in the literature and the market unbiased expected return appears to underestimate risk revealing a paradox of high return expectations driving prices up implying lower equity risk premium. The evidence on balance, suggests that stock price levels in the UK during 1989-2002 cannot be explained by fundamentals and the idea of temporary mispricing is not supported by strong evidence leaving the door open to…
abstract: In our first study (Chapter 3) we investigate valuation bias in the UK stock market by examining the valuation of new stocks relative to survivor stocks as new stocks have relatively higher valuations with the valuation gap increases in bullish markets and vice versa. The value explanatory model and individual fundamental factor tests developed provide evidence of a negative significant relation between age and value. This does not seem to be backed by any known economic rationale given that new stocks showed lower profitability levels, no concrete evidence of materialised higher growth or lower risk which is inconsistent with their relatively higher valuations indicating that valuation bias could well be present. The evidence in the first study does not imply that valuation of survivor stocks is rational or otherwise. Hence, in our second study (Chapter 4), we seek evidence on valuation bias at the stock market aggregate level where the occurrence of major divergences between stock prices on one side and economic growth and equity invested capital on the other, followed by subsequent price falls (corrections) is evident. The evidence obtained shows: (a) low earnings yields using theoretical and empirical models under plausible scenarios, (b) no changes in corporate profitability pattern that could explain stock price levels, (c) a cyclical gap between implied growth and economic growth, (d) that implied growth was almost always higher than both economic and earnings realised growth, and finally (e) the implied average equity risk premium compared with the evidence in the literature and the market unbiased expected return appears to underestimate risk revealing a paradox of high return expectations driving prices up implying lower equity risk premium. The evidence on balance, suggests that stock price levels in the UK during 1989-2002 cannot be explained by fundamentals and the idea of temporary mispricing is not supported by strong evidence leaving the door open to…
author: Jarkasy, Samer
keywords: HG Finance
date published: 2005
date modified: 2026-07-24T01:39:38Z
provider: City University of London
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: City University, London