Player performance evaluation in rugby using Stochastic Multi-Criteria Acceptability Analysis with simplified uncertainty formats

This dissertation considers problem contexts in which decision makers are unable or unwilling to assess trade-off information precisely. The primary aim is to investigate the use of Stochastic Multi-criteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) with simplified representations of uncertainty as a decision support tool for prescriptive modelling in 'low involvement' contexts such as these. A simulation experiment is used to assess (a) how closely a rank order of alternatives based on partial information and SMAA can approximate results obtained using full-information multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), (b) whether a number of 'simplified' SMAA models which make use of summarised measures of uncertainty instead of a full probability distribution might also be suitable in certain contexts, and (c) which characteristics of the decision problem influence the accuracy of this approximation.

Grantor dc:publisher.institution

Department of Statistical Sciences

Year dc:date.issued

2013

Author dc:creator

• Calder, Jon Matthew

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Durbach, Ian

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/11427/9797

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/9797