Simulating the characteristics of droughts in Southern Africa

Drought is widely considered as one of the most devastating natural disasters in the world. In particular, drought is a big threat in Southern Africa because the economy of most of the population in the region is based on rain-fed agriculture. Previous studies have projected that global warming may enhance the frequency and intensity of droughts over Southern Africa in the future. However, the credibility of this projection depends on the ability of the global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) in simulating the characteristics of drought. This thesis presents the characteristics of the Southern African droughts and evaluates the capability of global and regional climate models in simulating these characteristics. The thesis used a multi-scaled standardized drought index (called standardized precipitation evapo-transpiration index, SPEI) in characterizing droughts at 3- and 12-month scales over Southern Africa. The spatial patterns of the droughts are identified using the principal component analysis (PCA) on the SPEI, while the temporal characteristics of the drought patterns are studied using wavelet analysis. The relationship between each drought pattern and global SSTs (and climate indices) is quantified using correlation analysis and wavelet coherence analysis. The study uses correlation analysis to quantify the capability of the models in simulating the drought patterns.

Grantor dc:publisher.institution

Department of Environmental and Geographical Science

Year dc:date.issued

2014

Author dc:creator

• Ujeneza, Eva Liliane

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/11427/9102

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/9102