{"id":{"repo_id":"cape-town","oai_identifier":"oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/8515"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/cape-town/oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/8515","repository":{"repo_id":"cape-town","name":"University of Cape Town","base_url":"https://open.uct.ac.za/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Benefits of a Tree-Based model for stock selection in a South African context","abstract":"Quantitative investment practitioners typically model the performance of a stock relative to its benchmark and the stock's fundamental factors in a classical linear framework. However, these models have empirically been found to be unsuitable for capturing higher-order relationships between a stock's return relative to a benchmark and its fundamental factors. This dissertation studies the use of Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models for stock selection within the South African context, with the focus being on the period from when the Global Financial Crisis began in early 2007 until December 2012. By utilising four types of portfolios, a CART model is directly compared against two traditional linear models. It is seen that during the period focused upon, the portfolios based on the CART model deliver the best excess return and risk-adjusted return, albeit in most cases modestly above the returns delivered by the portfolios based upon the linear models. This is observed in the hedge-fund style and long-only portfolios constructed. Moreover, it is observed that the CART-based portfolios' returns are not correlated with those from the linear-model-based portfolios. This observation suggests that CART models offer an attractive option to diversify model risk within the South African context.","abstract_html":"Quantitative investment practitioners typically model the performance of a stock relative to its benchmark and the stock's fundamental factors in a classical linear framework. However, these models have empirically been found to be unsuitable for capturing higher-order relationships between a stock's return relative to a benchmark and its fundamental factors. This dissertation studies the use of Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models for stock selection within the South African context, with the focus being on the period from when the Global Financial Crisis began in early 2007 until December 2012. By utilising four types of portfolios, a CART model is directly compared against two traditional linear models. It is seen that during the period focused upon, the portfolios based on the CART model deliver the best excess return and risk-adjusted return, albeit in most cases modestly above the returns delivered by the portfolios based upon the linear models. This is observed in the hedge-fund style and long-only portfolios constructed. Moreover, it is observed that the CART-based portfolios' returns are not correlated with those from the linear-model-based portfolios. This observation suggests that CART models offer an attractive option to diversify model risk within the South African context.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Giuricich, Mario Nicolo"],"institution":"School of Economics","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Bosman, Petrus"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2014,"date_issued":"2014","date_published":"2014","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:23:21Z","subjects":[],"languages":["eng"],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/11427/8515","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Bosman, Petrus"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Giuricich, Mario Nicolo"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2014-10-17T10:08:22Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2014-10-17T10:08:22Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2014"]},{"key":"dc:publisher.department","label":"Dc Publisher Department","values":["School of Economics"]},{"key":"dc:publisher.institution","label":"Dc Publisher Institution","values":["University of Cape Town"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Master Thesis"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationlevel","label":"Dc Type Qualificationlevel","values":["Masters"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationname","label":"Dc Type Qualificationname","values":["MPhil"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["eng"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/11427/8515"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description","label":"Description","values":["Includes bibliographical references."]},{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["Quantitative investment practitioners typically model the performance of a stock relative to its benchmark and the stock's fundamental factors in a classical linear framework. However, these models have empirically been found to be unsuitable for capturing higher-order relationships between a stock's return relative to a benchmark and its fundamental factors. This dissertation studies the use of Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models for stock selection within the South African context, with the focus being on the period from when the Global Financial Crisis began in early 2007 until December 2012. By utilising four types of portfolios, a CART model is directly compared against two traditional linear models. It is seen that during the period focused upon, the portfolios based on the CART model deliver the best excess return and risk-adjusted return, albeit in most cases modestly above the returns delivered by the portfolios based upon the linear models. This is observed in the hedge-fund style and long-only portfolios constructed. Moreover, it is observed that the CART-based portfolios' returns are not correlated with those from the linear-model-based portfolios. This observation suggests that CART models offer an attractive option to diversify model risk within the South African context."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Benefits of a Tree-Based model for stock selection in a South African context"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Bosman, Petrus"],"dc:creator":["Giuricich, Mario Nicolo"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2014-10-17T10:08:22Z"],"dc:date.available":["2014-10-17T10:08:22Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2014"],"dc:description":["Includes bibliographical references."],"dc:description.abstract":["Quantitative investment practitioners typically model the performance of a stock relative to its benchmark and the stock's fundamental factors in a classical linear framework. However, these models have empirically been found to be unsuitable for capturing higher-order relationships between a stock's return relative to a benchmark and its fundamental factors. This dissertation studies the use of Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models for stock selection within the South African context, with the focus being on the period from when the Global Financial Crisis began in early 2007 until December 2012. By utilising four types of portfolios, a CART model is directly compared against two traditional linear models. It is seen that during the period focused upon, the portfolios based on the CART model deliver the best excess return and risk-adjusted return, albeit in most cases modestly above the returns delivered by the portfolios based upon the linear models. This is observed in the hedge-fund style and long-only portfolios constructed. Moreover, it is observed that the CART-based portfolios' returns are not correlated with those from the linear-model-based portfolios. This observation suggests that CART models offer an attractive option to diversify model risk within the South African context."],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/11427/8515"],"dc:language.iso":["eng"],"dc:publisher.department":["School of Economics"],"dc:publisher.institution":["University of Cape Town"],"dc:title":["Benefits of a Tree-Based model for stock selection in a South African context"],"dc:type":["Master Thesis"],"dc:type.qualificationlevel":["Masters"],"dc:type.qualificationname":["MPhil"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:23:21Z"}