{"id":{"repo_id":"cape-town","oai_identifier":"oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/5799"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/cape-town/oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/5799","repository":{"repo_id":"cape-town","name":"University of Cape Town","base_url":"https://open.uct.ac.za/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"South African house-price dynamics","abstract":"Motivated by concerns that a speculative price bubble may have formed in the South African house market, this paper examines South African house-price dynamics over a three-decade period spanning 1976 to 2005. Estimation of error-correction models reveals that real changes in the prices of medium- and large-sized South African homes are associated with short-run changes in economic growth, real mortgage rates and sovereign risk. Empirical analysis suggests that the real prices of small-sized homes are not associated with real mortgage rates in the short run. Estimation of the house-price models also revealed that property prices exhibit mean reversion in the long run, although adjustment to long-run equilibrium (governed by economic growth, real mortgage rates and sovereign risk) is slow.","abstract_html":"Motivated by concerns that a speculative price bubble may have formed in the South African house market, this paper examines South African house-price dynamics over a three-decade period spanning 1976 to 2005. Estimation of error-correction models reveals that real changes in the prices of medium- and large-sized South African homes are associated with short-run changes in economic growth, real mortgage rates and sovereign risk. Empirical analysis suggests that the real prices of small-sized homes are not associated with real mortgage rates in the short run. Estimation of the house-price models also revealed that property prices exhibit mean reversion in the long run, although adjustment to long-run equilibrium (governed by economic growth, real mortgage rates and sovereign risk) is slow.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Hutchings, Bradley"],"institution":"School of Economics","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Barr, Graham"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2007,"date_issued":"2007","date_published":"2007","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:23:12Z","subjects":[],"languages":["eng"],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5799","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Barr, Graham"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Hutchings, Bradley"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2014-07-31T12:28:23Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2014-07-31T12:28:23Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2007"]},{"key":"dc:publisher.department","label":"Dc Publisher Department","values":["School of Economics"]},{"key":"dc:publisher.institution","label":"Dc Publisher Institution","values":["University of Cape Town"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Master Thesis"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationlevel","label":"Dc Type Qualificationlevel","values":["Masters"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationname","label":"Dc Type Qualificationname","values":["MCom"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["eng"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5799"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description","label":"Description","values":["Includes abstract.","Includes bibliographical references (leaves 29-32)."]},{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["Motivated by concerns that a speculative price bubble may have formed in the South African house market, this paper examines South African house-price dynamics over a three-decade period spanning 1976 to 2005. Estimation of error-correction models reveals that real changes in the prices of medium- and large-sized South African homes are associated with short-run changes in economic growth, real mortgage rates and sovereign risk. Empirical analysis suggests that the real prices of small-sized homes are not associated with real mortgage rates in the short run. Estimation of the house-price models also revealed that property prices exhibit mean reversion in the long run, although adjustment to long-run equilibrium (governed by economic growth, real mortgage rates and sovereign risk) is slow."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["South African house-price dynamics"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Barr, Graham"],"dc:creator":["Hutchings, Bradley"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2014-07-31T12:28:23Z"],"dc:date.available":["2014-07-31T12:28:23Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2007"],"dc:description":["Includes abstract.","Includes bibliographical references (leaves 29-32)."],"dc:description.abstract":["Motivated by concerns that a speculative price bubble may have formed in the South African house market, this paper examines South African house-price dynamics over a three-decade period spanning 1976 to 2005. Estimation of error-correction models reveals that real changes in the prices of medium- and large-sized South African homes are associated with short-run changes in economic growth, real mortgage rates and sovereign risk. Empirical analysis suggests that the real prices of small-sized homes are not associated with real mortgage rates in the short run. Estimation of the house-price models also revealed that property prices exhibit mean reversion in the long run, although adjustment to long-run equilibrium (governed by economic growth, real mortgage rates and sovereign risk) is slow."],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5799"],"dc:language.iso":["eng"],"dc:publisher.department":["School of Economics"],"dc:publisher.institution":["University of Cape Town"],"dc:title":["South African house-price dynamics"],"dc:type":["Master Thesis"],"dc:type.qualificationlevel":["Masters"],"dc:type.qualificationname":["MCom"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:23:12Z"}