An analysis of recent severe climate events over Tanzania
type: CreativeWork
description: This thesis focuses on the analysis of the recent severe climate events over Tanzania. The circulation patterns over the Atlantic and Indian oceans responsible for inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Tanzania were analysed and the skill of Global Circulation Model (GCM) in capturing the inter-annual variability assessed. The results were tailored to the application for agriculture over North-eastern Tanzania to aid decision makers in the formulation of agriculture related policies for sustainable development. The thesis first touches on an analysis of the mean characteristics of selected meteorological fields comprising both MAM and OND rainfall seasons. Such processes were examined as necessary background information to determine the causes of rainfall variability. Two regions of deep convection were observed: one maritime (over the Indian Ocean), and one continental (over the Congo forests). High values of latent heat flux occurred in the Congo forests during the OND season, suggesting this region to be among the sources of moisture for said season. Generally, the easterly moisture flux dominates the region for both the OND and MAM seasons and this suggests the Indian Ocean to be the main source of moisture for the country's rainfall. The descending branch of the Walker type circulation was located over the Indian Ocean at about 55 °E and longitudinal shifts of this branch may cause rainfall anomalies. Similarly, the departure from any observed mean characteristics may cause climate anomalies over the region. Inter-annual time scale analysis indicates that the region experienced more dry than wet years during the period of study. However, dry anomalies were much weaker than wet anomalies, and the influence of El Niño on wet anomalies was suggested as one of the causes of this variation. Ascent (descent) over the study region coupled with a strong moisture flux convergence (divergence) was observed to be the dominant feature for wet (dry) years.…
abstract: This thesis focuses on the analysis of the recent severe climate events over Tanzania. The circulation patterns over the Atlantic and Indian oceans responsible for inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Tanzania were analysed and the skill of Global Circulation Model (GCM) in capturing the inter-annual variability assessed. The results were tailored to the application for agriculture over North-eastern Tanzania to aid decision makers in the formulation of agriculture related policies for sustainable development. The thesis first touches on an analysis of the mean characteristics of selected meteorological fields comprising both MAM and OND rainfall seasons. Such processes were examined as necessary background information to determine the causes of rainfall variability. Two regions of deep convection were observed: one maritime (over the Indian Ocean), and one continental (over the Congo forests). High values of latent heat flux occurred in the Congo forests during the OND season, suggesting this region to be among the sources of moisture for said season. Generally, the easterly moisture flux dominates the region for both the OND and MAM seasons and this suggests the Indian Ocean to be the main source of moisture for the country's rainfall. The descending branch of the Walker type circulation was located over the Indian Ocean at about 55 °E and longitudinal shifts of this branch may cause rainfall anomalies. Similarly, the departure from any observed mean characteristics may cause climate anomalies over the region. Inter-annual time scale analysis indicates that the region experienced more dry than wet years during the period of study. However, dry anomalies were much weaker than wet anomalies, and the influence of El Niño on wet anomalies was suggested as one of the causes of this variation. Ascent (descent) over the study region coupled with a strong moisture flux convergence (divergence) was observed to be the dominant feature for wet (dry) years.…
author: Kijazi, Agnes Lawrence
keywords: Oceanography
date published: 2009
date modified: 2026-07-22T22:23:33Z
provider: University of Cape Town
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: Department of Oceanography

PropertyValue
property ID: Handle
value: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/39374