The Impacts of Drought on Wheat Yield and Farmers' Livelihood in the Swartland Region of the Western Cape South Africa
Drought-induced crop loss has been a major concern among crop farmers in the Western Cape province of South Africa. This is because the frequency and intensity of drought have increased in recent years, which have led to declines in crop yields and have negative implications on the production of non-irrigated crops such as wheat. This study examined the sensitivity of winter wheat to drought during its growing season in the Swartland region, to assess the drought induced declines in wheat yield. Rainfall, temperature and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1- to 6-month lags were used to quantitatively assess drought during the period 1994-2018. Using Pearson correlation analysis, a relationship was examined between drought at various timescales and wheat yield for the region for 1994- 2018. Also, semi-structured interviews were conducted with the Swartland wheat farmers to corroborate the findings of this study. The most correlated growth period was the wheat- growing stage (JuneAugust), which shows the period that winter wheat is most sensitive to water deficit. Based on this analysis, the timing and distribution of rainfall during the wheat production season (April to September) was identified as a significant indicator of wheat yield. This revealed that during the reproductive stages, drought may significantly reduce wheat yields. It was found that the majority of the Swartland wheat farmers have a very good understanding of recent climate variability and change in terms of more variable rainfall intensity, higher temperatures and the increased drought occurrence. As a result, farmers adopted some on- farm coping strategies in form of crop and soil management practices. Therefore there is a need to strengthen farmers' coping capacity for better adaptation and resilience to the impacts of droughts to ensure sustainable wheat production. It is recommended that an early warning system that disseminates agro-meteorological information to farmers in real-time will aid successful farming decisions during these times of climate change. Farmers in Swartland could obtain useful information throughthis research to help them make more informed decisions.
Climate Change and Sustainable Development
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Department of Environmental and Geographical Science