Political Marginalisation and Political Violence in the Niger Delta

This study analyses the relationship between perceived marginalisation and the willingness of civilians to participate in, and justify political violence in Nigeria’s Niger Delta region. The dominant literature in this area tends to highlight political, economic and identity marginalisation as the causal factors behind political violence. However, there remains a lack of clarity in the conceptualisation and operationalisation of the purported political and socioeconomic marginalisations. This because large portion of the literature fails to take into account the psychological aspect of marginalisation. Using a statistical analysis of Afrobarometer1 survey data collected in 2003, the study applies two regression models to measure the predictive effects of 16 variables on attitudes towards both political violence justification and the willingness to participate in political violence in the Niger Delta. The benefit of survey methodology is it is a more accurate measurement of the term marginalisation, as marginalisation is perceived by people and is thus a psychological phenomenon. By disaggregating these broad marginalisation terms into discrete items, this study provides a more nuanced analysis of the motivating factors behind political violence. Interestingly, no measures of economic marginalisation were statistically significant in either model. Two elements of political marginalisation exhibited a statistically significant effect on the justification of political violence. Multiple aspects of political marginalisation and identity group prioritisation exhibited statistically significant effect on the willingness to participate in political violence, however not all items exhibited effects predicted by the majority of the literature. This analysis does confirm that the relationship between citizen and state is a salient predictor of attitudes towards political violence. However, the results also demonstrate that the blanket marginalisation terms used in political science literature are overly simplistic and lack nuance. Nevertheless, both scholars and policy makers should prioritise the government’s relationship with society when crafting policy designed to minimise political violence.

Grantor

Department of Political Studies

Year dc:date.issued

2019

Author dc:creator

• Kiernan, Christopher

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Jolobe, Zwelethu
• Govender, Rajendran

• Political Studies

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/11427/31397

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/31397