{"id":{"repo_id":"cape-town","oai_identifier":"oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/28974"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/cape-town/oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/28974","repository":{"repo_id":"cape-town","name":"University of Cape Town","base_url":"https://open.uct.ac.za/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Simulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilities","abstract":"This paper addresses the issue surrounding the valuation of valuing large-scale infrastructure projects located in emerging and frontier market countries. These are economies which, traditionally, have been characterised as having high levels of risk and uncertainty, thus presenting a significant challenge to capital allocation decisions and the associated theme of narrowing the finance gap. In light of this, a case study is used to investigate the impact that simulation has on the valuation of an actual infrastructure project located in a sub-Saharan African economy. Specifically, a Monte Carlo simulation-based cash flow model is presented of an investment into a renewable energy project located in South Africa. Results of the simulation process indicate the degree to which certain variables affect the output factors, juxtaposed with an initial base case. A clear need is established for a more sophisticated valuation method in order to accurately judge the investment opportunity and Monte Carlo simulation is presented as a viable solution.","abstract_html":"This paper addresses the issue surrounding the valuation of valuing large-scale infrastructure projects located in emerging and frontier market countries. These are economies which, traditionally, have been characterised as having high levels of risk and uncertainty, thus presenting a significant challenge to capital allocation decisions and the associated theme of narrowing the finance gap. In light of this, a case study is used to investigate the impact that simulation has on the valuation of an actual infrastructure project located in a sub-Saharan African economy. Specifically, a Monte Carlo simulation-based cash flow model is presented of an investment into a renewable energy project located in South Africa. Results of the simulation process indicate the degree to which certain variables affect the output factors, juxtaposed with an initial base case. A clear need is established for a more sophisticated valuation method in order to accurately judge the investment opportunity and Monte Carlo simulation is presented as a viable solution.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["De Villiers, Johan"],"institution":"Research of GSB","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Biekpe, Nicholas"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2015,"date_issued":"2015","date_published":"2015","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:23:07Z","subjects":[],"languages":["eng"],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28974","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Biekpe, Nicholas"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["De Villiers, Johan"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2018-11-02T09:31:27Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2018-11-02T09:31:27Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2015"]},{"key":"dc:publisher.department","label":"Dc Publisher Department","values":["Research of GSB"]},{"key":"dc:publisher.institution","label":"Dc Publisher Institution","values":["University of Cape Town"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Master Thesis"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationlevel","label":"Dc Type Qualificationlevel","values":["Masters"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationname","label":"Dc Type Qualificationname","values":["MCom"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["eng"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28974"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["This paper addresses the issue surrounding the valuation of valuing large-scale infrastructure projects located in emerging and frontier market countries. These are economies which, traditionally, have been characterised as having high levels of risk and uncertainty, thus presenting a significant challenge to capital allocation decisions and the associated theme of narrowing the finance gap. In light of this, a case study is used to investigate the impact that simulation has on the valuation of an actual infrastructure project located in a sub-Saharan African economy. Specifically, a Monte Carlo simulation-based cash flow model is presented of an investment into a renewable energy project located in South Africa. Results of the simulation process indicate the degree to which certain variables affect the output factors, juxtaposed with an initial base case. A clear need is established for a more sophisticated valuation method in order to accurately judge the investment opportunity and Monte Carlo simulation is presented as a viable solution."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Simulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilities"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Biekpe, Nicholas"],"dc:creator":["De Villiers, Johan"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2018-11-02T09:31:27Z"],"dc:date.available":["2018-11-02T09:31:27Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2015"],"dc:description.abstract":["This paper addresses the issue surrounding the valuation of valuing large-scale infrastructure projects located in emerging and frontier market countries. These are economies which, traditionally, have been characterised as having high levels of risk and uncertainty, thus presenting a significant challenge to capital allocation decisions and the associated theme of narrowing the finance gap. In light of this, a case study is used to investigate the impact that simulation has on the valuation of an actual infrastructure project located in a sub-Saharan African economy. Specifically, a Monte Carlo simulation-based cash flow model is presented of an investment into a renewable energy project located in South Africa. Results of the simulation process indicate the degree to which certain variables affect the output factors, juxtaposed with an initial base case. A clear need is established for a more sophisticated valuation method in order to accurately judge the investment opportunity and Monte Carlo simulation is presented as a viable solution."],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28974"],"dc:language.iso":["eng"],"dc:publisher.department":["Research of GSB"],"dc:publisher.institution":["University of Cape Town"],"dc:title":["Simulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilities"],"dc:type":["Master Thesis"],"dc:type.qualificationlevel":["Masters"],"dc:type.qualificationname":["MCom"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:23:07Z"}