An analysis of push and pull factors of capital flows in a regional trading bloc

Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) into Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) between 2000 and 2014 remained a minute fraction (at only 2% and 1% respectively) of global inflows. This study seeks to explain this phenomenon by examining the push (global) and pull (domestic) factors that may help to explain inflows of FDI and FPI in SSA and the mechanisms through which these factors affect inflows (the how). As ongoing regional integration efforts in Africa through trading blocs, the study also discusses the role of regional trading blocs in explaining capital flows into SSA. In the process, the research challenges some of the established theories and contributes to policy for managing international capital inflows. The study identifies possible explanatory variables from existing theory and empirical studies. Data on possible determinants of FDI and FPI is largely extracted from the World Bank and IMF databases. The determinants considered are macro-economic, infrastructural, institutional, resource endowment and geographical related. These are modeled into econometric model of FDI and FPI. Several hypotheses on the possible determinants are then tested using panel regressions with random effects. The results indicate that SSA's FDI during the period reviewed is mainly pulled by macroeconomic dynamics, infrastructure and human resources factors and pushed by global macroeconomic performance. Likewise, FPI is largely pulled by GDP and infrastructure factors. The results further show that FDI and FPI inflows in regional trading blocs of SADC, COMESA and ECOWAS are affected by different risk, return, macroeconomic, trade and distance factors. The effects of factors such as distance and macroeconomic factors also vary across the regional trading blocs, suggesting their importance of these blocs in capital flows.

Grantor dc:publisher.institution

Research of GSB

Year dc:date.issued

2018

Author dc:creator

• Mudyazvivi, Elton

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Gossel, Sean J

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28075

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/28075