Selection of multicriteria decision making methodologies in scenario based planning

This dissertation investigates the application of Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) methodologies to the area of scenario based policy planning. We examine how the tools of MCDM can be used to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) that would allow management or policy planners to resolve conflicting goals and interests. Ideally, the resolution would be obtained by the various decision makers (DMs) in such a manner, that it satisfies all the relevant interest groupings at a maximum level of achievement for all concerned. This is not always possible and compromises need to be made that are fair and equitable to all the relevant interests. Stewart et al. (1993), in a report entitled: "Scenario Based Multicriteria Policy Planning for Water Management in South Africa", develop the principles of a procedure for implementing scenario based multicriteria policy planning. Their iterative procedure is illustrated in figure 2.1, chapter 2, of this paper. In this dissertation, we refine certain parts of this procedure and the two areas in particular that we have looked at are: (1) filtering a large set of policy scenarios (Background Set), that could be a continuum, to form a smaller set (Foreground Set), and (2) further reducing the smaller set to form a solution set of policy scenarios. (The generic terms "Background Set" and "Foreground Set" are defined in section 2.1 of chapter 2.) The main objectives of this study were therefore mainly twofold and are as follows: (1) to determine what MCDM methods are relevant to natural resources management (using water as a case study), and (2) to investigate how these methods need to be adopted for use in an interactive DSS. We address the first objective by surveying the literature in an attempt to identify potential MCDM approaches that are suitable to (i) reduce a large set of alternatives, analogous to the Background Set, to a more manageable smaller set, analogous to the Foreground Set of alternatives, and (ii) refine this Foreground Set in order to present the DMs with a solution set of alternatives from which University of Cape Town they will make their final selection. The literature has until now not dealt explicitly with these two issues and we had to adapt certain MCDM approaches, many of which have been developed in a linear programming context, to suit our purposes.

Grantor dc:publisher.institution

Department of Statistical Sciences

Year dc:date.issued

1995

Author dc:creator

• Heynes, Wynford Gustav

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Stewart, Theodor J

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14722

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/14722