Integrated resource plan for South Africa using electricity load profiles

Integrated resource planning aims to fulfil electricity requirements with supply and demand resources. Least cost resources are optimised as supply expansions compete with measures to modify the load in meeting energy services. A demand side study is conducted to determine representative load profiles for electricity use within South Africa. Analysis of electricity consumption us in g load profiles of each sector ' s end-use electrical loads is essential for determining the appropriate supply technologies as well as the impact of demand side management and energy efficiency measures . A supply side study considers all existing and future power generation options required for expected electricity growth and system load characteristics. Energy model, TIMES, provides time-slices for adequate load profile representation TIMES is a Partial Dynamic Equilibrium Model as constraints are placed on the investment, usage and availability of technologies. All optimisations are for the least cost to the system. Demand and supply options are integrated into a single plan using the TIMES model and the supply expansion plan is changed when demand reduction targets are achieved using DSM and EE. The base case us in g a business-as-usual approach is compared with a low and medium impact DSM and EE scenario. Demand resources are estimated from the industrial, commercial and residential economic sectors. The scope of the plan is 22 years and there is full utilisation of all existing supply capacity with small amounts of decommissioning. Mothballed power stations are recommissioned initially. Peak-load plants are needed from 2007 and OCGT are selected using natural gas or LNG. Intermediate-load capacity is needed by 2011 using CCGT. Base-load capacity demands are met using new coal PF power stations in 2014. FBC stations using discard coal begin operation in 2016. The capacity expansion plan anticipates 2. 93GW of OCGT, 2.5 GW of CCGT, 7. 2GW of coal PF, 2. 8 GW of FBC plants and 2 GW of pump storage stations to be in use by 2020. Imported hydroelectric capacity of0.9 G W and PBMR capacity of3 GW is expected to be commissioned by 2024. Approximately 4 % less installed capacity is needed when a medium impact DSM and EE strategy is implemented. The marginal cost of energy gradually increases from 0. 06 R/kWh in 2002 to 0. 175 R/kWh in 2016 and to 0.325 R/kWh in 2024 as supply capacity is added. Compound load profiles from all national electricity usage provide an effective means whereby appropriate supply technologies are selected whilst incorporating load modifications due to DSM and EE.

Grantor dc:publisher.institution

Energy Research Centre

Year dc:date.issued

2006

Author dc:creator

• Rosin, Menachem Mendel

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14625

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/14625