{"id":{"repo_id":"cape-town","oai_identifier":"oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/10323"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/cape-town/oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/10323","repository":{"repo_id":"cape-town","name":"University of Cape Town","base_url":"https://open.uct.ac.za/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Predicting the Bull Run: scientific evidence for turning points of markets","abstract":"This study investigates predictability in financial markets, specifically the South African financial market, proxied by the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share Index (ALSI). It provides scientific evidence of past research of turning points in markets, focusing on bull markets as evidence suggests that predictability of bull markets leads to superior returns for an asset manager. In addition, this study provides an analysis of macroeconomic variables that can be used for predictability in the South Africa financial market. We found that certain macroeconomic variables do contain an element of predictability with the yield spread and short term interest rates being the best indicators. In addition we found that predicting the Bull Run in its earliest phase provides superior returns to an asset manager.","abstract_html":"This study investigates predictability in financial markets, specifically the South African financial market, proxied by the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share Index (ALSI). It provides scientific evidence of past research of turning points in markets, focusing on bull markets as evidence suggests that predictability of bull markets leads to superior returns for an asset manager. In addition, this study provides an analysis of macroeconomic variables that can be used for predictability in the South Africa financial market. We found that certain macroeconomic variables do contain an element of predictability with the yield spread and short term interest rates being the best indicators. In addition we found that predicting the Bull Run in its earliest phase provides superior returns to an asset manager.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Davies, Jerome Edward"],"institution":"Department of Finance and Tax","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Gstraunthaler, Thomas","Kruger, Ryan"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2013,"date_issued":"2013","date_published":"2013","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:23:21Z","subjects":[],"languages":["eng"],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/11427/10323","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Gstraunthaler, Thomas","Kruger, Ryan"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Davies, Jerome Edward"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2014-12-27T19:55:56Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2014-12-27T19:55:56Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2013"]},{"key":"dc:publisher.department","label":"Dc Publisher Department","values":["Department of Finance and Tax"]},{"key":"dc:publisher.institution","label":"Dc Publisher Institution","values":["University of Cape Town"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Master Thesis"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationlevel","label":"Dc Type Qualificationlevel","values":["Masters"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationname","label":"Dc Type Qualificationname","values":["MCom"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["eng"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/11427/10323"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description","label":"Description","values":["Includes bibliographical references."]},{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["This study investigates predictability in financial markets, specifically the South African financial market, proxied by the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share Index (ALSI). It provides scientific evidence of past research of turning points in markets, focusing on bull markets as evidence suggests that predictability of bull markets leads to superior returns for an asset manager. In addition, this study provides an analysis of macroeconomic variables that can be used for predictability in the South Africa financial market. We found that certain macroeconomic variables do contain an element of predictability with the yield spread and short term interest rates being the best indicators. In addition we found that predicting the Bull Run in its earliest phase provides superior returns to an asset manager."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Predicting the Bull Run: scientific evidence for turning points of markets"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Gstraunthaler, Thomas","Kruger, Ryan"],"dc:creator":["Davies, Jerome Edward"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2014-12-27T19:55:56Z"],"dc:date.available":["2014-12-27T19:55:56Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2013"],"dc:description":["Includes bibliographical references."],"dc:description.abstract":["This study investigates predictability in financial markets, specifically the South African financial market, proxied by the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share Index (ALSI). It provides scientific evidence of past research of turning points in markets, focusing on bull markets as evidence suggests that predictability of bull markets leads to superior returns for an asset manager. In addition, this study provides an analysis of macroeconomic variables that can be used for predictability in the South Africa financial market. We found that certain macroeconomic variables do contain an element of predictability with the yield spread and short term interest rates being the best indicators. In addition we found that predicting the Bull Run in its earliest phase provides superior returns to an asset manager."],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/11427/10323"],"dc:language.iso":["eng"],"dc:publisher.department":["Department of Finance and Tax"],"dc:publisher.institution":["University of Cape Town"],"dc:title":["Predicting the Bull Run: scientific evidence for turning points of markets"],"dc:type":["Master Thesis"],"dc:type.qualificationlevel":["Masters"],"dc:type.qualificationname":["MCom"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:23:21Z"}