The geopolitics of hurricane knowledge: Power, vulnerability, and transboundary science in the Caribbean

Hurricane forecasting in the Caribbean is built upon a power imbalance. The United States assumes a dual role, issuing hurricane predictions for both its domestic mainland and the islands of the Caribbean. These forecasts, while shared abroad at no direct monetary cost, hold tremendous value: an accurate and timely forecast enables communities to prepare, while an inaccurate one can result in mass casualties and economic devastation. The intertwining of scientific knowledge and political power has deep historical roots in the region, with the United States leveraging meteorology for geopolitical influence for more than a century, raising questions about transboundary knowledge transfer, the science-policy interface, public trust, and geopolitical power. This thesis examines the geographies of transboundary knowledge sharing, how vulnerability shapes the perceived usefulness and fairness of hurricane forecasts, and how information can serve as an instrument of power. Through case studies in four key jurisdictions – the continental United States, Puerto Rico, Cuba, and Grenada – I explore how hurricane forecasting and disaster aid intersect with the colonial legacies that continue to shape contemporary vulnerabilities and geopolitics. This research employs mixed methods, combining elite interviews, archival analysis, participant observation, and quantitative analysis of a United States disaster recovery funding dataset obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request. I argue that hurricane knowledge – essential for mitigating risk and vulnerability – is inherently plural and indeterminate, interpreted and perceived differently by decision-makers across varied contexts, and shaped by longstanding power dynamics. This knowledge reflects a diversity of applications, challenges, and opportunities rooted in local contexts. Its plural and uncertain character is deeply entangled with questions of geopolitical power, vulnerability, and fairness – issues that are especially salient in the (post)colonial Caribbean, particularly as the new Trump Administration moves to reduce United States scientific collaboration, international aid, and diplomatic engagement.

Name dc:type.qualificationname

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Level dc:type.qualificationlevel

Doctoral

Grantor dc:publisher.institution

University of Cambridge

Year dc:date.issued

2025

Author dc:creator

• Kujawa, Ellen

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Donovan, Amy
• Hulme, Mike

• Caribbean
• disaster risk reduction
• disasters
• fairness
• hurricanes
• justice
• science and technology studies

Licence

• https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/4541d12f-d601-45cd-8318-7784e4b744e1/download
• http://purl.org/NET/rdflicense/allrightsreserved

Language dc:language

eng

DOI dc:identifier.doi

https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.124507

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/394638