Do net-zero plans add up? A framework and model to quantify risks of resource supply shortages in climate mitigation strategies
type: CreativeWork
description: Climate change is one of the greatest current threats to humanity and ecosystems. In response, governments and industries have developed net-zero plans to guide future investments and policy decisions, in which future demand for economic output is matched to the supply of emissions-free production. Most current plans assume that demand should grow without constraints, so depend primarily on technology innovations to substitute today’s activities with emissions-free alternatives, requiring little end-user involvement. However, the potential for such technologies is often overstated and disguised by burden-shifting. For example, plans may depend on synthetic fuels or biomass without accounting for their supply, or on use of negative emissions technologies without accounting for their land or energy requirements. The aggregated energy and resource demands of net-zero plans are not easily ascertained, and are often compared against overly optimistic projections of availability. Future supply expectations are biased by the dominant modelling approaches used today and by the limited consideration of the physical, social and political constraints on deployment rates. Without a comparison between aggregated resource demands and realistic supply availability, risks of supply shortages have not been clearly considered or articulated. This raises several critical questions: 1. How can independent net-zero plans from different industries be aggregated into a unified framework? 2. Are current net-zero plans consistent with one another, or do their combined demands exceed probable availability? 3. How can these plans be adjusted to reduce the risk of supply shortages? This thesis addresses these questions by: 1. Developing a framework and model to aggregate the physical resource demands of net-zero plans; 2. Comparing the aggregated demands of a broad selection of net-zero plans against probable future supply, based on credible deployment rates; and 3. Providing a novel feasibili…
abstract: Climate change is one of the greatest current threats to humanity and ecosystems. In response, governments and industries have developed net-zero plans to guide future investments and policy decisions, in which future demand for economic output is matched to the supply of emissions-free production. Most current plans assume that demand should grow without constraints, so depend primarily on technology innovations to substitute today’s activities with emissions-free alternatives, requiring little end-user involvement. However, the potential for such technologies is often overstated and disguised by burden-shifting. For example, plans may depend on synthetic fuels or biomass without accounting for their supply, or on use of negative emissions technologies without accounting for their land or energy requirements. The aggregated energy and resource demands of net-zero plans are not easily ascertained, and are often compared against overly optimistic projections of availability. Future supply expectations are biased by the dominant modelling approaches used today and by the limited consideration of the physical, social and political constraints on deployment rates. Without a comparison between aggregated resource demands and realistic supply availability, risks of supply shortages have not been clearly considered or articulated. This raises several critical questions: 1. How can independent net-zero plans from different industries be aggregated into a unified framework? 2. Are current net-zero plans consistent with one another, or do their combined demands exceed probable availability? 3. How can these plans be adjusted to reduce the risk of supply shortages? This thesis addresses these questions by: 1. Developing a framework and model to aggregate the physical resource demands of net-zero plans; 2. Comparing the aggregated demands of a broad selection of net-zero plans against probable future supply, based on credible deployment rates; and 3. Providing a novel feasibili…
author: Hawkin, Jennifer
language: eng
keywords: net-zero, climate change mitigation, climate change policy, energy modelling, greenhouse gas removal, resource availability
license: https://apollo8-f-pro.lib.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/4234d276-fb3d-4fc4-a11f-8b73c2a68f3b/download
license: http://purl.org/NET/rdflicense/allrightsreserved
date published: 2024-12-24
date modified: 2026-07-22T22:24:07Z
provider: Cambridge University
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: University of Cambridge

PropertyValue
property ID: DOI
value: 10.17863/CAM.119203