The role of technical improvements in decarbonising passenger transport
type: CreativeWork
description: Passenger vehicles are a leading driver of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The majority of efforts to reduce vehicle GHG emissions focus on technical improvements, due to difficulties in reducing travel demand and shifting to alternative modes of travel. However, the rate at which technical improvements can be deployed is highly uncertain. Furthermore, the benefits of technical efficiency improvements may be offset by consumer trends towards larger and more powerful vehicles, filled with a greater number of accessories. Similarly, efficiency improvements can lower running costs, which may stimulate drivers to travel more. These consumer trends create further uncertainty about the impact of technical improvements. The aim of this thesis is to estimate the extent to which future technical improvements might be offset by consumer trends, and the risks they pose to reducing CO2 emissions. Firstly, technical efficiency improvements in vehicles over the past two decades are quantified, using driver-reported data for the first time. This is important as vehicle fuel consumption reported by drivers on the road is found to be ≈35% higher than official tested values in 2017-18. The analysis shows that technical improvements had the potential to reduce fuel consumption by 1.8 L/100km between 2001 and 2018. However, two thirds of this potential was offset by the increasing size and power of vehicles. Finally, the introduction of new EU vehicle efficiency regulations in 2008/09 is found to have had little effect at stimulating the rate of real technical efficiency improvements in British vehicles. If efficiency improvements stimulate drivers to travel more, due to lower running costs, potential emissions reductions from technical improvements may be further offset. Past estimates of the magnitude of this effect, known as the Rebound Effect, have varied widely, partly due to data constraints and a reliance upon highly aggregated government statistics. The analysis o…
abstract: Passenger vehicles are a leading driver of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The majority of efforts to reduce vehicle GHG emissions focus on technical improvements, due to difficulties in reducing travel demand and shifting to alternative modes of travel. However, the rate at which technical improvements can be deployed is highly uncertain. Furthermore, the benefits of technical efficiency improvements may be offset by consumer trends towards larger and more powerful vehicles, filled with a greater number of accessories. Similarly, efficiency improvements can lower running costs, which may stimulate drivers to travel more. These consumer trends create further uncertainty about the impact of technical improvements. The aim of this thesis is to estimate the extent to which future technical improvements might be offset by consumer trends, and the risks they pose to reducing CO2 emissions. Firstly, technical efficiency improvements in vehicles over the past two decades are quantified, using driver-reported data for the first time. This is important as vehicle fuel consumption reported by drivers on the road is found to be ≈35% higher than official tested values in 2017-18. The analysis shows that technical improvements had the potential to reduce fuel consumption by 1.8 L/100km between 2001 and 2018. However, two thirds of this potential was offset by the increasing size and power of vehicles. Finally, the introduction of new EU vehicle efficiency regulations in 2008/09 is found to have had little effect at stimulating the rate of real technical efficiency improvements in British vehicles. If efficiency improvements stimulate drivers to travel more, due to lower running costs, potential emissions reductions from technical improvements may be further offset. Past estimates of the magnitude of this effect, known as the Rebound Effect, have varied widely, partly due to data constraints and a reliance upon highly aggregated government statistics. The analysis o…
author: Craglia, Matteo Alexander McConnochie
language: eng
keywords: Transport, CO2 emissions, sensitivity analysis, decomposition analysis, rebound effect, energy efficiency, fuel consumption
license: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/27fa63f9-c354-4e41-abf9-f8c0fabfd188/download
license: https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/
date published: 2020-06-01
date modified: 2026-07-24T01:33:11Z
provider: Cambridge University
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: University of Cambridge

PropertyValue
property ID: DOI
value: 10.17863/CAM.59355