{"id":{"repo_id":"cambridge","oai_identifier":"oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/279685"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/cambridge/oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/279685","repository":{"repo_id":"cambridge","name":"Cambridge University","base_url":"https://api.repository.cam.ac.uk/server/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"The response of Hagafellsjökull Vestari glacier, Iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model","abstract":"A dynamic glacier flowline model is coupled to a degree-day mass balance model with the purpose of modelling the response of Hagafellsjökull vestari glacier to future climate change scenarios. The degree-day mass balance model is calibrated using mass balance measurements for the period 1997-2007. The temperature and precipitation input for the calibration is provided by a combination of ERA-40 reanalysis data and local weather station records. The calibrated model shows good agreement with the measured mass balances (r2 = 0.95, RMSE = 0.68 m w.e.). The flowline model is then calibrated against the 2007 surface profile extracted from a DEM constructed from LiDAR data. During calibration the model is run from 1997 to 2007 with the mass balance input provided by the calibrated degree-day model. A number of changes had to be made to the model in order to achieve a good fit with the reference profile. These included a parameterisation of the basal mechanisms of movement (i.e. sliding and deformation of the bed) which was forced by the calculation of water flux at the base; and the introduction of a uniform basal melt rate. The calibrated model calculates the 2007 ice surface profile with an RMSE of 4.41 m. The need to introduce a basal melt rate of 0.8 m yr-1 suggests the presence under the glacier of a significant source of geothermal energy. A range of climate scenarios are imposed on the finalised model to predict the glacier’s behaviour between 2007 and 2109. In the ‘worst-case’ scenario the glacier will lose almost 80% of the 2007 ice volume over the next century. If there is no future climate change relative to the 1978-2007 30-year averages for temperature and precipitation, by 2109 the glacier will lose 30% of the 2007 ice volume and the glacier front will retreat by just over 5 km from its 2007 position.","abstract_html":"A dynamic glacier flowline model is coupled to a degree-day mass balance model with the purpose of modelling the response of Hagafellsjökull vestari glacier to future climate change scenarios. The degree-day mass balance model is calibrated using mass balance measurements for the period 1997-2007. The temperature and precipitation input for the calibration is provided by a combination of ERA-40 reanalysis data and local weather station records. The calibrated model shows good agreement with the measured mass balances (r2 = 0.95, RMSE = 0.68 m w.e.). The flowline model is then calibrated against the 2007 surface profile extracted from a DEM constructed from LiDAR data. During calibration the model is run from 1997 to 2007 with the mass balance input provided by the calibrated degree-day model. A number of changes had to be made to the model in order to achieve a good fit with the reference profile. These included a parameterisation of the basal mechanisms of movement (i.e. sliding and deformation of the bed) which was forced by the calculation of water flux at the base; and the introduction of a uniform basal melt rate. The calibrated model calculates the 2007 ice surface profile with an RMSE of 4.41 m. The need to introduce a basal melt rate of 0.8 m yr-1 suggests the presence under the glacier of a significant source of geothermal energy. A range of climate scenarios are imposed on the finalised model to predict the glacier’s behaviour between 2007 and 2109. In the ‘worst-case’ scenario the glacier will lose almost 80% of the 2007 ice volume over the next century. If there is no future climate change relative to the 1978-2007 30-year averages for temperature and precipitation, by 2109 the glacier will lose 30% of the 2007 ice volume and the glacier front will retreat by just over 5 km from its 2007 position.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Pickett, Mark"],"institution":"University of Cambridge","degree_name":"Master of Philosophy (MPhil)","degree_level":"Masters","degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Sutton-Long, Peter"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2009,"date_issued":"2009-10-02","date_published":"2009-10-02","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:24:18Z","subjects":[],"languages":["en"],"rights":[],"rights_urls":["https://apollo8-f-pro.lib.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/bd5c92d4-c0ed-40f4-9047-32f2846644a4/download","https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/"],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.27054","outbound_label":"DOI","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.doi"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Sutton-Long, Peter"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Pickett, Mark"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2009-10-02"]},{"key":"dc:publisher.institution","label":"Dc Publisher Institution","values":["University of Cambridge"]},{"key":"dc:relation.isreferencedby.uri","label":"Dc Relation Isreferencedby URI","values":["https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279685"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Thesis"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationlevel","label":"Dc Type Qualificationlevel","values":["Masters"]},{"key":"dc:type.qualificationname","label":"Dc Type Qualificationname","values":["Master of Philosophy (MPhil)"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["en"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["https://apollo8-f-pro.lib.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/bd5c92d4-c0ed-40f4-9047-32f2846644a4/download","https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.doi","label":"DOI","values":["10.17863/CAM.27054"]},{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["https://apollo8-f-pro.lib.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/edc2fb9d-3dd6-4e8c-9af8-354f3fdd6b41/download"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["A dynamic glacier flowline model is coupled to a degree-day mass balance model with the purpose of modelling the response of Hagafellsjökull vestari glacier to future climate change scenarios. The degree-day mass balance model is calibrated using mass balance measurements for the period 1997-2007. The temperature and precipitation input for the calibration is provided by a combination of ERA-40 reanalysis data and local weather station records. The calibrated model shows good agreement with the measured mass balances (r2 = 0.95, RMSE = 0.68 m w.e.). The flowline model is then calibrated against the 2007 surface profile extracted from a DEM constructed from LiDAR data. During calibration the model is run from 1997 to 2007 with the mass balance input provided by the calibrated degree-day model. A number of changes had to be made to the model in order to achieve a good fit with the reference profile. These included a parameterisation of the basal mechanisms of movement (i.e. sliding and deformation of the bed) which was forced by the calculation of water flux at the base; and the introduction of a uniform basal melt rate. The calibrated model calculates the 2007 ice surface profile with an RMSE of 4.41 m. The need to introduce a basal melt rate of 0.8 m yr-1 suggests the presence under the glacier of a significant source of geothermal energy. A range of climate scenarios are imposed on the finalised model to predict the glacier’s behaviour between 2007 and 2109. In the ‘worst-case’ scenario the glacier will lose almost 80% of the 2007 ice volume over the next century. If there is no future climate change relative to the 1978-2007 30-year averages for temperature and precipitation, by 2109 the glacier will lose 30% of the 2007 ice volume and the glacier front will retreat by just over 5 km from its 2007 position."]},{"key":"dc:format.checksum.md5","label":"Dc Format Checksum Md5","values":["383434e65dc29ab26b6e2678975bc4b8","87eda9de84448d1f82354d60eee3eb5f"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["The response of Hagafellsjökull Vestari glacier, Iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Sutton-Long, Peter"],"dc:creator":["Pickett, Mark"],"dc:date.issued":["2009-10-02"],"dc:description.abstract":["A dynamic glacier flowline model is coupled to a degree-day mass balance model with the purpose of modelling the response of Hagafellsjökull vestari glacier to future climate change scenarios. The degree-day mass balance model is calibrated using mass balance measurements for the period 1997-2007. The temperature and precipitation input for the calibration is provided by a combination of ERA-40 reanalysis data and local weather station records. The calibrated model shows good agreement with the measured mass balances (r2 = 0.95, RMSE = 0.68 m w.e.). The flowline model is then calibrated against the 2007 surface profile extracted from a DEM constructed from LiDAR data. During calibration the model is run from 1997 to 2007 with the mass balance input provided by the calibrated degree-day model. A number of changes had to be made to the model in order to achieve a good fit with the reference profile. These included a parameterisation of the basal mechanisms of movement (i.e. sliding and deformation of the bed) which was forced by the calculation of water flux at the base; and the introduction of a uniform basal melt rate. The calibrated model calculates the 2007 ice surface profile with an RMSE of 4.41 m. The need to introduce a basal melt rate of 0.8 m yr-1 suggests the presence under the glacier of a significant source of geothermal energy. A range of climate scenarios are imposed on the finalised model to predict the glacier’s behaviour between 2007 and 2109. In the ‘worst-case’ scenario the glacier will lose almost 80% of the 2007 ice volume over the next century. If there is no future climate change relative to the 1978-2007 30-year averages for temperature and precipitation, by 2109 the glacier will lose 30% of the 2007 ice volume and the glacier front will retreat by just over 5 km from its 2007 position."],"dc:format.checksum.md5":["383434e65dc29ab26b6e2678975bc4b8","87eda9de84448d1f82354d60eee3eb5f"],"dc:identifier.doi":["10.17863/CAM.27054"],"dc:identifier.uri":["https://apollo8-f-pro.lib.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/edc2fb9d-3dd6-4e8c-9af8-354f3fdd6b41/download"],"dc:language":["en"],"dc:publisher.institution":["University of Cambridge"],"dc:relation.isreferencedby.uri":["https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279685"],"dc:rights":["https://apollo8-f-pro.lib.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/bd5c92d4-c0ed-40f4-9047-32f2846644a4/download","https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/"],"dc:title":["The response of Hagafellsjökull Vestari glacier, Iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model"],"dc:type":["Thesis"],"dc:type.qualificationlevel":["Masters"],"dc:type.qualificationname":["Master of Philosophy (MPhil)"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:24:18Z"}