{"id":{"repo_id":"cambridge","oai_identifier":"oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/263407"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/cambridge/oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/263407","repository":{"repo_id":"cambridge","name":"Cambridge University","base_url":"https://api.repository.cam.ac.uk/server/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Modelling the future mass balance of glaciated Northwest Spitsbergen, Svalbard for a range of socio-economic trajectories","abstract":"Spitsbergen, Svalbard, is covered by approximately 22,000 km2 of glaciers, which are particularly sensitive to the enhanced global warming expected over the region (Nuth et al., 2010; Miao et al., 2014). Loss of these glaciers has global, regional and local implications. The study transiently models the 2006-2100 climatic mass balance of glaciers in Northwest Spitsbergen for different socio-economic scenarios using a low-complexity, tractable approach. Glaciated Northwest Spitsbergen is projected to experience 31.3 ? 17.3% volume loss (1.11 ? 0.61 mm of sea level rise) from 2006-2100. The model represents the future patterns well but constantly underestimates volume loss. Overall the study emphasises the uncertain future for glaciated Northwest Spitsbergen, and the place for low-complexity modelling in current research.","abstract_html":"Spitsbergen, Svalbard, is covered by approximately 22,000 km2 of glaciers, which are particularly sensitive to the enhanced global warming expected over the region (Nuth et al., 2010; Miao et al., 2014). Loss of these glaciers has global, regional and local implications. The study transiently models the 2006-2100 climatic mass balance of glaciers in Northwest Spitsbergen for different socio-economic scenarios using a low-complexity, tractable approach. Glaciated Northwest Spitsbergen is projected to experience 31.3 ? 17.3% volume loss (1.11 ? 0.61 mm of sea level rise) from 2006-2100. The model represents the future patterns well but constantly underestimates volume loss. 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