Modelling the economic and social consequences of drought under future projections of climate change
type: CreativeWork
description: Drought events and their consequences pose a considerable problem for governments, businesses and individuals. Superimposed on this risk is the danger of future anthropogenic climate change. Climate models are increasingly being used to understand how climate change may affect future drought regimes. However, methodologies to quantify the type and scale of social and economic effects that could occur under these future scenarios are virtually non-existent. Consequently, this study developed a methodology for projecting and quantifying future drought risk in terms of economic damages and numbers of lives lost and affected. In this study, historic drought events were identified in regional precipitation data using the Standardised Precipitation Index, and their magnitude quantified. Drought magnitude was linked to reported historic data on economic damages and the numbers of lives affected and lost, to create country specific economic and social drought damage functions for Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain/Portugal and the USA. Future projections of drought magnitude for 2003-2050 were modelled using the integrated assessment model CIAS (Community Integrated Assessment System), for a range of climate and emission scenarios, and applied to the drought damage functions to estimate future economic and social drought effects. Additionally, a preliminary investigation of indirect economic drought damages was conducted using the Adaptive Regional Input-Output model (ARIO). The analysis identified large variability in the scale and trend of economic and social effects from future drought. Economic benefits projected to occur in some countries were outweighed by negative effects elsewhere, with annual losses to global GDP from drought increasing in the first half of the 21st century. The analysis suggested that severe and extreme SPI-6 and SPI-12 drought events could cause additional losses to global GDP of 0.01% to 0.25% annually. Whilst this effect on global…
abstract: Drought events and their consequences pose a considerable problem for governments, businesses and individuals. Superimposed on this risk is the danger of future anthropogenic climate change. Climate models are increasingly being used to understand how climate change may affect future drought regimes. However, methodologies to quantify the type and scale of social and economic effects that could occur under these future scenarios are virtually non-existent. Consequently, this study developed a methodology for projecting and quantifying future drought risk in terms of economic damages and numbers of lives lost and affected. In this study, historic drought events were identified in regional precipitation data using the Standardised Precipitation Index, and their magnitude quantified. Drought magnitude was linked to reported historic data on economic damages and the numbers of lives affected and lost, to create country specific economic and social drought damage functions for Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain/Portugal and the USA. Future projections of drought magnitude for 2003-2050 were modelled using the integrated assessment model CIAS (Community Integrated Assessment System), for a range of climate and emission scenarios, and applied to the drought damage functions to estimate future economic and social drought effects. Additionally, a preliminary investigation of indirect economic drought damages was conducted using the Adaptive Regional Input-Output model (ARIO). The analysis identified large variability in the scale and trend of economic and social effects from future drought. Economic benefits projected to occur in some countries were outweighed by negative effects elsewhere, with annual losses to global GDP from drought increasing in the first half of the 21st century. The analysis suggested that severe and extreme SPI-6 and SPI-12 drought events could cause additional losses to global GDP of 0.01% to 0.25% annually. Whilst this effect on global…
author: Jenkins, Katie L.
language: eng
license: https://apollo8-f-pro.lib.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/754556e1-11ff-44b8-b969-f07cddf52bf2/download
license: https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/
date published: 2012-01-10
date modified: 2026-07-22T22:24:28Z
provider: Cambridge University
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: University of Cambridge

PropertyValue
property ID: DOI
value: 10.17863/CAM.16425