{"id":{"repo_id":"cadiz","oai_identifier":"oai:rodin.uca.es:10498/39891"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/cadiz/oai:rodin.uca.es:10498/39891","repository":{"repo_id":"cadiz","name":"Universidad de Cadiz","base_url":"https://rodin.uca.es/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Uso de un modelo hidrológico como herramienta de apoyo en la gestión integrada de los recursos hídricos: Casos de estudio: cuenca del río Guadiana, cuenca del río Guadalquivir y cuenca del río Guadalete","abstract":"Water is an essential resource for socio-economic development and the maintenance of ecosystems, and its sustainable management represents one of the main challenges in the current context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressure. In this regard, integrated water resources planning and management require tools that allow understanding and quantifying the processes that determine water availability and quality. The main objective of this thesis is to develop methodologies to identify and quantify the importance of water in watershed management, considering the physical, chemical, and biological processes that determine water quality and quantity, within a context of climate change and land-use change. For this purpose, three Spanish river basins draining into the Atlantic Ocean were selected as case studies: Guadiana, Guadalete, and Guadalquivir. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was applied to simulate streamflow, suspended sediments, and nitrate load at the basin scale. The model was calibrated and validated using time series of hydrological, climatic, and water quality data, along with the necessary input data for its correct implementation in the study watersheds. In addition, climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and land-use change scenarios were incorporated to evaluate their impacts on hydrological dynamics and water quality. In the case of Guadalete watershed, the hydrological modeling was complemented with a hydrodynamic model and a pollutant transport model to analyze dispersion in the estuarine system, characterized mainly by marshes under a strong tidal influence. In the Guadiana basin, the model showed excellent performance in simulating streamflow and nitrate loads, with R² values above 0.78 and NSE values above 0.7 during both calibration and validation periods. Land-use and climate change scenarios revealed significant combined effects: the conversion of forest areas into olive groves increased nitrate loads under the extreme scenario RCP 8.5, whereas reductions were observed under the mitigation scenario RCP 4.5. These results highlight the importance of integrating agricultural planning and water resource management to prevent impacts on water quality. In the Guadalete basin, hydrological simulation using SWAT enabled the identification of temporal patterns in streamflow and nutrient transport, highlighting areas with a high degree of anthropogenic influence, where nitrate concentrations depend more on agricultural management than on streamflow. Calibration indicated a systematic bias (high PBIAS values) during wet periods; however, R² values above 0.70 during dry periods demonstrate the model’s ability to reproduce the baseline dynamics of the system. Furthermore, integration with the hydrodynamic model UCA2D and the transport model SCILLA allowed for the analysis of contaminant dispersion in the Cádiz and San Fernando salt marshes. Results showed that low-flow areas retain between 60% and 100% of particles, while tidal propagation (M2 constituent) controls dispersion across much of the bay, with mean errors of only 0.5 cm in amplitude and 0.5° in phase compared to observed data. These findings enabled the development of risk maps and the definition of environmental monitoring strategies, highlighting the importance of scheduling discharges during the ebb phase to optimize contaminant dispersion. In the Lower Guadalquivir, the study assessed the influence of prolonged droughts (2021– 2023) on rice agriculture and water quality. Despite reductions in streamflow between 40% and 60% and in crop yield (up to 97%), nitrate concentrations remained high due to reduced dilution and nutrient accumulation in paddy soils. Improved SWAT calibration enhanced the representation of peak concentrations, achieving an R² of 0.74 and providing a more realistic depiction of nutrient dynamics during drought periods. Finally, this research proposes a methodological framework for the assessment of waterrelated Ecosystem Services (ES), integrating SWAT outputs and georeferenced indicators to identify impacts on aquatic ecosystems and their capacity to provide benefits to society. The combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling, together with particletracking experiments, provides robust and transferable tools for the management of complex river basins, spatial planning, and adaptation to climate and global change scenarios, contributing to sustainable strategies for the preservation of water resources and associated ecosystems.","abstract_html":"Water is an essential resource for socio-economic development and the maintenance of ecosystems, and its sustainable management represents one of the main challenges in the current context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressure. In this regard, integrated water resources planning and management require tools that allow understanding and quantifying the processes that determine water availability and quality. The main objective of this thesis is to develop methodologies to identify and quantify the importance of water in watershed management, considering the physical, chemical, and biological processes that determine water quality and quantity, within a context of climate change and land-use change. For this purpose, three Spanish river basins draining into the Atlantic Ocean were selected as case studies: Guadiana, Guadalete, and Guadalquivir. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was applied to simulate streamflow, suspended sediments, and nitrate load at the basin scale. The model was calibrated and validated using time series of hydrological, climatic, and water quality data, along with the necessary input data for its correct implementation in the study watersheds. In addition, climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and land-use change scenarios were incorporated to evaluate their impacts on hydrological dynamics and water quality. In the case of Guadalete watershed, the hydrological modeling was complemented with a hydrodynamic model and a pollutant transport model to analyze dispersion in the estuarine system, characterized mainly by marshes under a strong tidal influence. In the Guadiana basin, the model showed excellent performance in simulating streamflow and nitrate loads, with R² values above 0.78 and NSE values above 0.7 during both calibration and validation periods. Land-use and climate change scenarios revealed significant combined effects: the conversion of forest areas into olive groves increased nitrate loads under the extreme scenario RCP 8.5, whereas reductions were observed under the mitigation scenario RCP 4.5. These results highlight the importance of integrating agricultural planning and water resource management to prevent impacts on water quality. In the Guadalete basin, hydrological simulation using SWAT enabled the identification of temporal patterns in streamflow and nutrient transport, highlighting areas with a high degree of anthropogenic influence, where nitrate concentrations depend more on agricultural management than on streamflow. Calibration indicated a systematic bias (high PBIAS values) during wet periods; however, R² values above 0.70 during dry periods demonstrate the model’s ability to reproduce the baseline dynamics of the system. Furthermore, integration with the hydrodynamic model UCA2D and the transport model SCILLA allowed for the analysis of contaminant dispersion in the Cádiz and San Fernando salt marshes. Results showed that low-flow areas retain between 60% and 100% of particles, while tidal propagation (M2 constituent) controls dispersion across much of the bay, with mean errors of only 0.5 cm in amplitude and 0.5° in phase compared to observed data. These findings enabled the development of risk maps and the definition of environmental monitoring strategies, highlighting the importance of scheduling discharges during the ebb phase to optimize contaminant dispersion. In the Lower Guadalquivir, the study assessed the influence of prolonged droughts (2021– 2023) on rice agriculture and water quality. Despite reductions in streamflow between 40% and 60% and in crop yield (up to 97%), nitrate concentrations remained high due to reduced dilution and nutrient accumulation in paddy soils. Improved SWAT calibration enhanced the representation of peak concentrations, achieving an R² of 0.74 and providing a more realistic depiction of nutrient dynamics during drought periods. Finally, this research proposes a methodological framework for the assessment of waterrelated Ecosystem Services (ES), integrating SWAT outputs and georeferenced indicators to identify impacts on aquatic ecosystems and their capacity to provide benefits to society. The combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling, together with particletracking experiments, provides robust and transferable tools for the management of complex river basins, spatial planning, and adaptation to climate and global change scenarios, contributing to sustainable strategies for the preservation of water resources and associated ecosystems.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Buonocore, Cira"],"institution":null,"degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Pérez Cayeiro, María Luisa","Gómiz Pascual, Juan Jesús"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2026,"date_issued":"2026","date_published":"2026","updated_at":"2026-07-24T01:29:50Z","subjects":[],"languages":["spa"],"rights":["Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional"],"rights_urls":["http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/"],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10498/39891","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Pérez Cayeiro, María Luisa","Gómiz Pascual, Juan Jesús"]},{"key":"dc:contributor.other","label":"Dc Contributor Other","values":["Física Aplicada","Historia, Geografía y Filosofía"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Buonocore, Cira"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2026-06-29T08:08:02Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2026-06-29T08:08:02Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2026"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["doctoral thesis"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["spa"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional"]},{"key":"dc:rights.uri","label":"Rights URI","values":["http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/10498/39891"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["Water is an essential resource for socio-economic development and the maintenance of ecosystems, and its sustainable management represents one of the main challenges in the current context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressure. In this regard, integrated water resources planning and management require tools that allow understanding and quantifying the processes that determine water availability and quality. The main objective of this thesis is to develop methodologies to identify and quantify the importance of water in watershed management, considering the physical, chemical, and biological processes that determine water quality and quantity, within a context of climate change and land-use change. For this purpose, three Spanish river basins draining into the Atlantic Ocean were selected as case studies: Guadiana, Guadalete, and Guadalquivir. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was applied to simulate streamflow, suspended sediments, and nitrate load at the basin scale. The model was calibrated and validated using time series of hydrological, climatic, and water quality data, along with the necessary input data for its correct implementation in the study watersheds. In addition, climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and land-use change scenarios were incorporated to evaluate their impacts on hydrological dynamics and water quality. In the case of Guadalete watershed, the hydrological modeling was complemented with a hydrodynamic model and a pollutant transport model to analyze dispersion in the estuarine system, characterized mainly by marshes under a strong tidal influence. In the Guadiana basin, the model showed excellent performance in simulating streamflow and nitrate loads, with R² values above 0.78 and NSE values above 0.7 during both calibration and validation periods. Land-use and climate change scenarios revealed significant combined effects: the conversion of forest areas into olive groves increased nitrate loads under the extreme scenario RCP 8.5, whereas reductions were observed under the mitigation scenario RCP 4.5. These results highlight the importance of integrating agricultural planning and water resource management to prevent impacts on water quality. In the Guadalete basin, hydrological simulation using SWAT enabled the identification of temporal patterns in streamflow and nutrient transport, highlighting areas with a high degree of anthropogenic influence, where nitrate concentrations depend more on agricultural management than on streamflow. Calibration indicated a systematic bias (high PBIAS values) during wet periods; however, R² values above 0.70 during dry periods demonstrate the model’s ability to reproduce the baseline dynamics of the system. Furthermore, integration with the hydrodynamic model UCA2D and the transport model SCILLA allowed for the analysis of contaminant dispersion in the Cádiz and San Fernando salt marshes. Results showed that low-flow areas retain between 60% and 100% of particles, while tidal propagation (M2 constituent) controls dispersion across much of the bay, with mean errors of only 0.5 cm in amplitude and 0.5° in phase compared to observed data. These findings enabled the development of risk maps and the definition of environmental monitoring strategies, highlighting the importance of scheduling discharges during the ebb phase to optimize contaminant dispersion. In the Lower Guadalquivir, the study assessed the influence of prolonged droughts (2021– 2023) on rice agriculture and water quality. Despite reductions in streamflow between 40% and 60% and in crop yield (up to 97%), nitrate concentrations remained high due to reduced dilution and nutrient accumulation in paddy soils. Improved SWAT calibration enhanced the representation of peak concentrations, achieving an R² of 0.74 and providing a more realistic depiction of nutrient dynamics during drought periods. Finally, this research proposes a methodological framework for the assessment of waterrelated Ecosystem Services (ES), integrating SWAT outputs and georeferenced indicators to identify impacts on aquatic ecosystems and their capacity to provide benefits to society. The combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling, together with particletracking experiments, provides robust and transferable tools for the management of complex river basins, spatial planning, and adaptation to climate and global change scenarios, contributing to sustainable strategies for the preservation of water resources and associated ecosystems.","El agua constituye un recurso esencial para el desarrollo socioeconómico y el mantenimiento de los ecosistemas, cuya gestión sostenible representa uno de los principales retos en el contexto actual de cambio climático y creciente presión antrópica. En este sentido, la planificación y gestión integrada de los recursos hídricos requiere herramientas que permitan comprender y cuantificar los procesos que determinan su disponibilidad y calidad. El objetivo principal de esta tesis es desarrollar metodologías que permitan identificar y cuantificar la importancia del agua en la gestión hídrica de cuencas, considerando los procesos físicos, químicos y biológicos que determinan la calidad y cantidad del recurso, en un contexto de cambio climático y cambio de uso del suelo. Para ello, se seleccionaron como casos de estudio tres cuencas españolas con vertiente sur-atlántica: Guadiana, Guadalete y Guadalquivir. Se aplicó para tal propósito el modelo hidrológico SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) para simular el caudal, los sedimentos en suspensión y la carga nitratos a escala de cuenca. El modelo fue calibrado y validado utilizando series temporales de datos hidrológicos, climáticos y de calidad del agua, junto con los datos de entrada necesarios para su correcta implementación en la cuenca de estudio. Asimismo, se incorporaron escenarios de cambio climático (RCP 4.5 y RCP 8.5) y de cambio de uso del suelo, con el fin de evaluar su impacto sobre la dinámica hidrológica y de calidad del agua. En el caso de la cuenca del Guadalete, la modelización hidrológica se complementó con un modelo hidrodinámico y un modelo de transporte de contaminantes para analizar la dispersión en el sistema estuarino, caracterizado principalmente por marismas sometidas a una marcada influencia mareal. En la cuenca del Guadiana, el modelo mostró un excelente rendimiento en la simulación de caudal y carga de nitratos, con valores de R² superiores a 0.78 y NSE superiores a 0.7 durante los periodos de calibración y validación. Los escenarios de cambio de uso del suelo y cambio climático revelaron efectos combinados significativos: la conversión de áreas forestales a olivares aumentó la carga de nitratos bajo el escenario extremo RCP 8.5, mientras que bajo el escenario de mitigación RCP 4.5 se observaron reducciones, destacando la importancia de integrar planificación agrícola y gestión de recursos hídricos para prevenir impactos sobre la calidad del agua. En la cuenca del Guadalete, la simulación hidrológica mediante SWAT permitió identificar patrones temporales de caudal y transporte de nutrientes, mostrando áreas con alto grado de influencia antrópica, donde la concentración de nitratos depende más de la gestión agrícola que del caudal. La calibración indicó un sesgo sistemático durante episodios húmedos, pero los valores de R² superiores a 0.70 durante periodos de sequía demuestran la capacidad del modelo para reproducir la dinámica de base del sistema. Además, la integración con el modelo hidrodinámico UCA2D y el modelo de transporte SCILLA permitió analizar la dispersión de contaminantes en las marismas de Cádiz y San Fernando, evidenciando que las zonas de bajo flujo retienen entre 60% y 100% de partículas, mientras que la propagación mareal (constituyente M2) controla la dispersión en gran parte de la bahía. Estos resultados permitieron elaborar mapas de riesgo y definir estrategias de seguimiento ambiental, mostrando la importancia de programar los vertidos tras la fase de vaciante para optimizar la dispersión de contaminantes. En el Bajo Guadalquivir, el estudio integró la influencia de sequías prolongadas (2021–2023) sobre la agricultura del arroz y la calidad del agua. A pesar de una reducción del caudal entre 40% y 60% y del rendimiento del cultivo (hasta 97%), las concentraciones de nitratos se mantuvieron elevadas debido a la menor dilución y a la acumulación de nutrientes en suelos de arrozales. La calibración ajustada del modelo SWAT permitió mejorar la representación de las concentraciones máximas, alcanzando un R² de 0.74 y proporcionando una visión más realista del comportamiento de los nutrientes en periodos de sequía. Finalmente, esta investigación propone un marco metodológico para la evaluación de los Servicios Ecosistémicos (SE) vinculados al agua, integrando salidas de SWAT y georreferenciación de indicadores para identificar impactos sobre los ecosistemas acuáticos y su capacidad de provisión de beneficios a la sociedad. La combinación de modelización hidrológica, hidrodinámica y experimentos de seguimiento de partículas proporciona herramientas robustas y transferibles para la gestión de cuencas complejas, la planificación territorial y la adaptación a escenarios de cambio climático y global, contribuyendo a estrategias sostenibles de preservación de los recursos hídricos y de los ecosistemas asociados."]},{"key":"dc:format","label":"Dc Format","values":["application/pdf"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Uso de un modelo hidrológico como herramienta de apoyo en la gestión integrada de los recursos hídricos: Casos de estudio: cuenca del río Guadiana, cuenca del río Guadalquivir y cuenca del río Guadalete"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Pérez Cayeiro, María Luisa","Gómiz Pascual, Juan Jesús"],"dc:contributor.other":["Física Aplicada","Historia, Geografía y Filosofía"],"dc:creator":["Buonocore, Cira"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2026-06-29T08:08:02Z"],"dc:date.available":["2026-06-29T08:08:02Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2026"],"dc:description.abstract":["Water is an essential resource for socio-economic development and the maintenance of ecosystems, and its sustainable management represents one of the main challenges in the current context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressure. In this regard, integrated water resources planning and management require tools that allow understanding and quantifying the processes that determine water availability and quality. The main objective of this thesis is to develop methodologies to identify and quantify the importance of water in watershed management, considering the physical, chemical, and biological processes that determine water quality and quantity, within a context of climate change and land-use change. For this purpose, three Spanish river basins draining into the Atlantic Ocean were selected as case studies: Guadiana, Guadalete, and Guadalquivir. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was applied to simulate streamflow, suspended sediments, and nitrate load at the basin scale. The model was calibrated and validated using time series of hydrological, climatic, and water quality data, along with the necessary input data for its correct implementation in the study watersheds. In addition, climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and land-use change scenarios were incorporated to evaluate their impacts on hydrological dynamics and water quality. In the case of Guadalete watershed, the hydrological modeling was complemented with a hydrodynamic model and a pollutant transport model to analyze dispersion in the estuarine system, characterized mainly by marshes under a strong tidal influence. In the Guadiana basin, the model showed excellent performance in simulating streamflow and nitrate loads, with R² values above 0.78 and NSE values above 0.7 during both calibration and validation periods. Land-use and climate change scenarios revealed significant combined effects: the conversion of forest areas into olive groves increased nitrate loads under the extreme scenario RCP 8.5, whereas reductions were observed under the mitigation scenario RCP 4.5. These results highlight the importance of integrating agricultural planning and water resource management to prevent impacts on water quality. In the Guadalete basin, hydrological simulation using SWAT enabled the identification of temporal patterns in streamflow and nutrient transport, highlighting areas with a high degree of anthropogenic influence, where nitrate concentrations depend more on agricultural management than on streamflow. Calibration indicated a systematic bias (high PBIAS values) during wet periods; however, R² values above 0.70 during dry periods demonstrate the model’s ability to reproduce the baseline dynamics of the system. Furthermore, integration with the hydrodynamic model UCA2D and the transport model SCILLA allowed for the analysis of contaminant dispersion in the Cádiz and San Fernando salt marshes. Results showed that low-flow areas retain between 60% and 100% of particles, while tidal propagation (M2 constituent) controls dispersion across much of the bay, with mean errors of only 0.5 cm in amplitude and 0.5° in phase compared to observed data. These findings enabled the development of risk maps and the definition of environmental monitoring strategies, highlighting the importance of scheduling discharges during the ebb phase to optimize contaminant dispersion. In the Lower Guadalquivir, the study assessed the influence of prolonged droughts (2021– 2023) on rice agriculture and water quality. Despite reductions in streamflow between 40% and 60% and in crop yield (up to 97%), nitrate concentrations remained high due to reduced dilution and nutrient accumulation in paddy soils. Improved SWAT calibration enhanced the representation of peak concentrations, achieving an R² of 0.74 and providing a more realistic depiction of nutrient dynamics during drought periods. Finally, this research proposes a methodological framework for the assessment of waterrelated Ecosystem Services (ES), integrating SWAT outputs and georeferenced indicators to identify impacts on aquatic ecosystems and their capacity to provide benefits to society. The combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling, together with particletracking experiments, provides robust and transferable tools for the management of complex river basins, spatial planning, and adaptation to climate and global change scenarios, contributing to sustainable strategies for the preservation of water resources and associated ecosystems.","El agua constituye un recurso esencial para el desarrollo socioeconómico y el mantenimiento de los ecosistemas, cuya gestión sostenible representa uno de los principales retos en el contexto actual de cambio climático y creciente presión antrópica. En este sentido, la planificación y gestión integrada de los recursos hídricos requiere herramientas que permitan comprender y cuantificar los procesos que determinan su disponibilidad y calidad. El objetivo principal de esta tesis es desarrollar metodologías que permitan identificar y cuantificar la importancia del agua en la gestión hídrica de cuencas, considerando los procesos físicos, químicos y biológicos que determinan la calidad y cantidad del recurso, en un contexto de cambio climático y cambio de uso del suelo. Para ello, se seleccionaron como casos de estudio tres cuencas españolas con vertiente sur-atlántica: Guadiana, Guadalete y Guadalquivir. Se aplicó para tal propósito el modelo hidrológico SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) para simular el caudal, los sedimentos en suspensión y la carga nitratos a escala de cuenca. El modelo fue calibrado y validado utilizando series temporales de datos hidrológicos, climáticos y de calidad del agua, junto con los datos de entrada necesarios para su correcta implementación en la cuenca de estudio. Asimismo, se incorporaron escenarios de cambio climático (RCP 4.5 y RCP 8.5) y de cambio de uso del suelo, con el fin de evaluar su impacto sobre la dinámica hidrológica y de calidad del agua. En el caso de la cuenca del Guadalete, la modelización hidrológica se complementó con un modelo hidrodinámico y un modelo de transporte de contaminantes para analizar la dispersión en el sistema estuarino, caracterizado principalmente por marismas sometidas a una marcada influencia mareal. En la cuenca del Guadiana, el modelo mostró un excelente rendimiento en la simulación de caudal y carga de nitratos, con valores de R² superiores a 0.78 y NSE superiores a 0.7 durante los periodos de calibración y validación. Los escenarios de cambio de uso del suelo y cambio climático revelaron efectos combinados significativos: la conversión de áreas forestales a olivares aumentó la carga de nitratos bajo el escenario extremo RCP 8.5, mientras que bajo el escenario de mitigación RCP 4.5 se observaron reducciones, destacando la importancia de integrar planificación agrícola y gestión de recursos hídricos para prevenir impactos sobre la calidad del agua. En la cuenca del Guadalete, la simulación hidrológica mediante SWAT permitió identificar patrones temporales de caudal y transporte de nutrientes, mostrando áreas con alto grado de influencia antrópica, donde la concentración de nitratos depende más de la gestión agrícola que del caudal. La calibración indicó un sesgo sistemático durante episodios húmedos, pero los valores de R² superiores a 0.70 durante periodos de sequía demuestran la capacidad del modelo para reproducir la dinámica de base del sistema. Además, la integración con el modelo hidrodinámico UCA2D y el modelo de transporte SCILLA permitió analizar la dispersión de contaminantes en las marismas de Cádiz y San Fernando, evidenciando que las zonas de bajo flujo retienen entre 60% y 100% de partículas, mientras que la propagación mareal (constituyente M2) controla la dispersión en gran parte de la bahía. Estos resultados permitieron elaborar mapas de riesgo y definir estrategias de seguimiento ambiental, mostrando la importancia de programar los vertidos tras la fase de vaciante para optimizar la dispersión de contaminantes. En el Bajo Guadalquivir, el estudio integró la influencia de sequías prolongadas (2021–2023) sobre la agricultura del arroz y la calidad del agua. A pesar de una reducción del caudal entre 40% y 60% y del rendimiento del cultivo (hasta 97%), las concentraciones de nitratos se mantuvieron elevadas debido a la menor dilución y a la acumulación de nutrientes en suelos de arrozales. La calibración ajustada del modelo SWAT permitió mejorar la representación de las concentraciones máximas, alcanzando un R² de 0.74 y proporcionando una visión más realista del comportamiento de los nutrientes en periodos de sequía. Finalmente, esta investigación propone un marco metodológico para la evaluación de los Servicios Ecosistémicos (SE) vinculados al agua, integrando salidas de SWAT y georreferenciación de indicadores para identificar impactos sobre los ecosistemas acuáticos y su capacidad de provisión de beneficios a la sociedad. La combinación de modelización hidrológica, hidrodinámica y experimentos de seguimiento de partículas proporciona herramientas robustas y transferibles para la gestión de cuencas complejas, la planificación territorial y la adaptación a escenarios de cambio climático y global, contribuyendo a estrategias sostenibles de preservación de los recursos hídricos y de los ecosistemas asociados."],"dc:format":["application/pdf"],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/10498/39891"],"dc:language.iso":["spa"],"dc:rights":["Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional"],"dc:rights.uri":["http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/"],"dc:title":["Uso de un modelo hidrológico como herramienta de apoyo en la gestión integrada de los recursos hídricos: Casos de estudio: cuenca del río Guadiana, cuenca del río Guadalquivir y cuenca del río Guadalete"],"dc:type":["doctoral thesis"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-24T01:29:50Z"}