The Optimal Weighting of Pre-Election Polling Data

Pre-election polls are used to test the political landscape and predict election results. The relative weights for the state-level data from the 2006 U.S. senatorial races are considered based on the date on which the polls were conducted. Long- and short-memory weight functions are developed to specify the relative value of historical polling data. An optimal weight function is estimated by minimizing the discrepancy function between estimates from weighted polls and the election outcomes.

Name thesis:degree_name

MS

Grantor dc:publisher

Brigham Young University - Provo

Author dc:creator

• Johnson, Gregory K.

• pre-election polling data
• long- and short-memory weight functions
• Statistics and Probability

Language dc:language

English

Repository record dc:identifier

https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/1377

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:scholarsarchive.byu.edu:etd-2376