Segurança de sistemas de potência em regime transitório considerando incertezas
This Thesis presents a new methodology for transient dynamic analysis of power systems, submitted to different types of uncertainties represented probabilistically. The dynamic phenomena of electromechanical nature, involving advanced models of generators and automatic voltage regulators, are dealt with by a model based on a single machine equivalent ( SIME ), conjugating benefits of precision and speed of calculation. The uncertainties of the system are distinguished in two classes (e.g scenarios and disturbances), both treated by enumeration. The uncertainties of the type scenario are associated to degraded topological configurations, load levels and modes of interchange between areas. The uncertainties of the type disturbance represent faults of great impact (e.g short-circuits), whose characteristics (e.g type, location, duration) are probabilistically modeled. It is possible to perform analyses enclosing uncertainties only in scenarios, only in disturbances and the hybrid case, combining uncertainties in scenarios and disturbances, simultaneously. A simplified probabilistic model of corrective measure, associated to the fast reclosing of the defective circuit is also considered. The methodology proposed allows the attainment of a collection of new probabilistic indices of reliability, associated to the failure mode of security of power systems. The computational program developed (FORTRAN 95) was submitted to a comprehensive set of tests using systems of 4, 9 and 39 buses. The main contribution of the Thesis is the conjunction of an accurate dynamic representation of power system, via SIME, with a unique decoupled treatment of uncertainties that have effective influence in the security of the system. The new methodology also has great potential of use in the short term operation environment and in expansion planning.
Computação em potência, Sistema elétrico de potência, Sistema de energia elétrica, Estabilidade (Engenharia elétrica), Confiabilidade (Engenharia), Dynamics, Power systems, Probability, Reliability, Risk, Security, Stability, Transient, Uncertainty
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