{"id":{"repo_id":"brazil-uerj","oai_identifier":"oai:pantheon.ufrj.br:11422/3724"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/brazil-uerj/oai:pantheon.ufrj.br:11422/3724","repository":{"repo_id":"brazil-uerj","name":"Brazil UERJ","base_url":"https://pantheon.ufrj.br/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Estudo de previsão de cheias em tempo real com modelos empíricos e semi-conceitual","abstract":"Mathematical models are important parts in flood-forecasting systems. Usually empirical and semi-conceptual models are used independently. In order to minimize the errors induced by the independent use of the models, this dissertation suggests the simultaneous use of the two kinds of models. Three models were tested: a semi-conceptual rainfall run-off model, and ARIMAX empirical model and a conjugation: a rainfall run-off model for streamflow forecasting and and ARIMAX for error forecasting of the semi-conceptual model. The models were tested with date from Ibirama basin, in the Itajaí Valley, in the State of Santa Catarina. The results showed that the effectiveness of the models depend on the forecasting horizon. For the very short run, the ARIMAX model can be used. For the long run, forecastings like the estimation of the peak time and its value, the semi-conceptual model was superior. For short run, the conjugated model seens to be the best.","abstract_html":"Mathematical models are important parts in flood-forecasting systems. Usually empirical and semi-conceptual models are used independently. In order to minimize the errors induced by the independent use of the models, this dissertation suggests the simultaneous use of the two kinds of models. Three models were tested: a semi-conceptual rainfall run-off model, and ARIMAX empirical model and a conjugation: a rainfall run-off model for streamflow forecasting and and ARIMAX for error forecasting of the semi-conceptual model. The models were tested with date from Ibirama basin, in the Itajaí Valley, in the State of Santa Catarina. The results showed that the effectiveness of the models depend on the forecasting horizon. For the very short run, the ARIMAX model can be used. For the long run, forecastings like the estimation of the peak time and its value, the semi-conceptual model was superior. For short run, the conjugated model seens to be the best.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Cruz, Jussara Cabral"],"institution":"Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Magalhães, Paulo Canedo de"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":1987,"date_issued":"1987-05","date_published":"1987-05","updated_at":"2026-07-24T01:16:07Z","subjects":["Engenharia Civil"],"languages":["por"],"rights":["Acesso Aberto"],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/11422/3724","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Magalhães, Paulo Canedo de"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Cruz, Jussara Cabral"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2018-03-12T18:13:09Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2026-05-16T03:05:20Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["1987-05"]},{"key":"dc:publisher","label":"Institution","values":["Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro"]},{"key":"dc:publisher.department","label":"Dc Publisher Department","values":["Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Dissertação"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["Engenharia Civil"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["por"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Acesso Aberto"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/11422/3724"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["Mathematical models are important parts in flood-forecasting systems. Usually empirical and semi-conceptual models are used independently. In order to minimize the errors induced by the independent use of the models, this dissertation suggests the simultaneous use of the two kinds of models. Three models were tested: a semi-conceptual rainfall run-off model, and ARIMAX empirical model and a conjugation: a rainfall run-off model for streamflow forecasting and and ARIMAX for error forecasting of the semi-conceptual model. The models were tested with date from Ibirama basin, in the Itajaí Valley, in the State of Santa Catarina. The results showed that the effectiveness of the models depend on the forecasting horizon. For the very short run, the ARIMAX model can be used. For the long run, forecastings like the estimation of the peak time and its value, the semi-conceptual model was superior. For short run, the conjugated model seens to be the best."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Estudo de previsão de cheias em tempo real com modelos empíricos e semi-conceitual"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Magalhães, Paulo Canedo de"],"dc:creator":["Cruz, Jussara Cabral"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2018-03-12T18:13:09Z"],"dc:date.available":["2026-05-16T03:05:20Z"],"dc:date.issued":["1987-05"],"dc:description.abstract":["Mathematical models are important parts in flood-forecasting systems. Usually empirical and semi-conceptual models are used independently. In order to minimize the errors induced by the independent use of the models, this dissertation suggests the simultaneous use of the two kinds of models. Three models were tested: a semi-conceptual rainfall run-off model, and ARIMAX empirical model and a conjugation: a rainfall run-off model for streamflow forecasting and and ARIMAX for error forecasting of the semi-conceptual model. The models were tested with date from Ibirama basin, in the Itajaí Valley, in the State of Santa Catarina. The results showed that the effectiveness of the models depend on the forecasting horizon. For the very short run, the ARIMAX model can be used. For the long run, forecastings like the estimation of the peak time and its value, the semi-conceptual model was superior. For short run, the conjugated model seens to be the best."],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/11422/3724"],"dc:language":["por"],"dc:publisher":["Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro"],"dc:publisher.department":["Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia"],"dc:rights":["Acesso Aberto"],"dc:subject":["Engenharia Civil"],"dc:title":["Estudo de previsão de cheias em tempo real com modelos empíricos e semi-conceitual"],"dc:type":["Dissertação"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-24T01:16:07Z"}