Modelling the economic implications of coastal managed retreat
type: CreativeWork
description: Climate change is an issue for all of humanity and with it comes many challenges. At the coast, climate change drives sea-level rise and increases the magnitude and frequency of storms, which erode shorelines and flood properties. Managing these coastal hazards requires assessing the risk and economic impact of medium-term planning options. One such planning option available to governments in New Zealand is large-scale managed retreat. However, it requires research to examine how to implement it and what are the impacts. This thesis presents a new method to support robust approaches to implementing managed retreat of coastal communities exposed to climate change through rising sea levels and increasing storminess. It uses Evolutionary Economic analysis, System Dynamics, Scenario Planning and Robust Decision Making to identify Dynamic Adaptative Policy Pathways for implementation. The approach models nine scenarios of climate risk, coastal mitigation and adaptation to assess the economic implications of a large-scale managed retreat for a study area in Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand, well known for exposure to a range of coastal hazards. The thesis first develops a baseline scenario, or status-quo, where managed retreat is unavailable to society, and exposed communities either endure coastal flooding, inundation or erosion or adapt through ad-hoc (forced or voluntary) relocation. The baseline scenario covers three climate futures: no sea-level rise, a mid-range scenario based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 4.5, and a worst-case scenario based on RCP8.5. The thesis then develops and examines two scenarios (mid-range and worst-case) where planned mitigation measures are implemented through coastal defence, two scenarios where central government fund managed retreat through climate bonds, and two scenarios where local government fund managed retreat through a property rating taxes. The thesis develops a new integrated assessment model called C-ADAPT in S…
abstract: Climate change is an issue for all of humanity and with it comes many challenges. At the coast, climate change drives sea-level rise and increases the magnitude and frequency of storms, which erode shorelines and flood properties. Managing these coastal hazards requires assessing the risk and economic impact of medium-term planning options. One such planning option available to governments in New Zealand is large-scale managed retreat. However, it requires research to examine how to implement it and what are the impacts. This thesis presents a new method to support robust approaches to implementing managed retreat of coastal communities exposed to climate change through rising sea levels and increasing storminess. It uses Evolutionary Economic analysis, System Dynamics, Scenario Planning and Robust Decision Making to identify Dynamic Adaptative Policy Pathways for implementation. The approach models nine scenarios of climate risk, coastal mitigation and adaptation to assess the economic implications of a large-scale managed retreat for a study area in Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand, well known for exposure to a range of coastal hazards. The thesis first develops a baseline scenario, or status-quo, where managed retreat is unavailable to society, and exposed communities either endure coastal flooding, inundation or erosion or adapt through ad-hoc (forced or voluntary) relocation. The baseline scenario covers three climate futures: no sea-level rise, a mid-range scenario based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 4.5, and a worst-case scenario based on RCP8.5. The thesis then develops and examines two scenarios (mid-range and worst-case) where planned mitigation measures are implemented through coastal defence, two scenarios where central government fund managed retreat through climate bonds, and two scenarios where local government fund managed retreat through a property rating taxes. The thesis develops a new integrated assessment model called C-ADAPT in S…
author: Eaves, Ashton
license: https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm
date published: 2022
date modified: 2026-07-24T01:07:07Z
provider: University of Auckland
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: ResearchSpace@Auckland

PropertyValue
property ID: Handle
value: https://hdl.handle.net/2292/60655