{"id":{"repo_id":"auckland-ms","oai_identifier":"oai:researchspace.auckland.ac.nz:2292/49214"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/auckland-ms/oai:researchspace.auckland.ac.nz:2292/49214","repository":{"repo_id":"auckland-ms","name":"University of Auckland","base_url":"https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/server/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Going Negative in the Era of the Super PAC and Social Media: Negative Political Communication in the United States on Television and Facebook","abstract":"Every presidential election cycle, billions of dollars are collectively spent by candidates and outside groups on political advertisements, aired on television and more recently on social media platforms. Increasingly, the bulk of these financial resources are devoted to attacking their opponents, and so negative campaigning stands on the precipice of becoming a billion dollar industry in the United States. The casual observer might therefore feel justified in assuming that such a means of political communication is an effective campaign strategy. As the logic goes, why else would campaigns spend so much money on it? However, until recently the academic evidence seemed quite definitive that 'going negative' was an ineffective - if not detrimental - campaign strategy. As this thesis demonstrates, the existing body of research on the effectiveness of negative campaigning suffers from several critical shortcomings, which - when addressed - show academic scepticism may not be as justifiable as previously thought. For one, the _eld routinely overlooks significant differences in the receptiveness of key voter subgroups, masking the effect of negativity via model under specification. Theoretical positions simply inapplicable to the modern context also continue to feature in much of the literature. Work on negative campaigning has also insufficiently accounted for two prominent contemporary changes in the campaign landscape: one regulatory, one technological. The major regulatory environment changes in the aftermath of Citizens United are well documented, yet in nearly a decade since the decision only a handful of experimental studies have explored whether sponsorship is an important determinant. In the meantime, negativity research almost universally continues its focus on television, despite campaigning unquestionably having 'gone digital.' These shortcomings, among others, demand we reconsider the effectiveness of negative campaigning. This thesis contributes to the body of research on negative political communication by identifying critical knowledge gaps, adopting methodologies capable of satisfying these needs, and developing theory which more fully explains the behaviour we expect of voters in the modern context on both mediums. In this effort, four major research questions are developed. To answer these four questions, hundreds of millions of observations are collected and analysed, a scale rarely seen in this _eld. The resulting robust analyses show negative campaigning can 'work' on television and on social media, depending on the circumstances of the attack and with varying influence across voter subgroups, but not all negativity works as attackers intend. In demonstrating the applicability of new methods necessary to expose much needed new evidence, and new theory to explain voter behaviour, the contributions within collectively call for a revitalization of research on negative political communication.","abstract_html":"Every presidential election cycle, billions of dollars are collectively spent by candidates and outside groups on political advertisements, aired on television and more recently on social media platforms. Increasingly, the bulk of these financial resources are devoted to attacking their opponents, and so negative campaigning stands on the precipice of becoming a billion dollar industry in the United States. The casual observer might therefore feel justified in assuming that such a means of political communication is an effective campaign strategy. As the logic goes, why else would campaigns spend so much money on it? However, until recently the academic evidence seemed quite definitive that 'going negative' was an ineffective - if not detrimental - campaign strategy. As this thesis demonstrates, the existing body of research on the effectiveness of negative campaigning suffers from several critical shortcomings, which - when addressed - show academic scepticism may not be as justifiable as previously thought. For one, the _eld routinely overlooks significant differences in the receptiveness of key voter subgroups, masking the effect of negativity via model under specification. Theoretical positions simply inapplicable to the modern context also continue to feature in much of the literature. Work on negative campaigning has also insufficiently accounted for two prominent contemporary changes in the campaign landscape: one regulatory, one technological. The major regulatory environment changes in the aftermath of Citizens United are well documented, yet in nearly a decade since the decision only a handful of experimental studies have explored whether sponsorship is an important determinant. In the meantime, negativity research almost universally continues its focus on television, despite campaigning unquestionably having 'gone digital.' These shortcomings, among others, demand we reconsider the effectiveness of negative campaigning. This thesis contributes to the body of research on negative political communication by identifying critical knowledge gaps, adopting methodologies capable of satisfying these needs, and developing theory which more fully explains the behaviour we expect of voters in the modern context on both mediums. In this effort, four major research questions are developed. To answer these four questions, hundreds of millions of observations are collected and analysed, a scale rarely seen in this _eld. The resulting robust analyses show negative campaigning can 'work' on television and on social media, depending on the circumstances of the attack and with varying influence across voter subgroups, but not all negativity works as attackers intend. In demonstrating the applicability of new methods necessary to expose much needed new evidence, and new theory to explain voter behaviour, the contributions within collectively call for a revitalization of research on negative political communication.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Phillips, Justin Bonest"],"institution":"ResearchSpace@Auckland","degree_name":"PhD","degree_level":"Doctoral","degree_discipline":"Politics and International Relations","degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Kemp, Geoff","Curtin, Jennifer"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2019,"date_issued":"2019","date_published":"2019","updated_at":"2026-07-24T01:03:56Z","subjects":[],"languages":[],"rights":["Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher."],"rights_urls":["https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm"],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/2292/49214","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Kemp, Geoff","Curtin, Jennifer"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Phillips, Justin Bonest"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2019-11-26T02:01:15Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2019"]},{"key":"dc:publisher","label":"Institution","values":["ResearchSpace@Auckland"]},{"key":"dc:relation.isreferencedby","label":"Dc Relation Isreferencedby","values":["UoA99265326613302091"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Politics and International Relations"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["Doctoral"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["PhD"]},{"key":"thesis:institution_name","label":"Thesis Institution Name","values":["The University of Auckland"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. 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The casual observer might therefore feel justified in assuming that such a means of political communication is an effective campaign strategy. As the logic goes, why else would campaigns spend so much money on it? However, until recently the academic evidence seemed quite definitive that 'going negative' was an ineffective - if not detrimental - campaign strategy. As this thesis demonstrates, the existing body of research on the effectiveness of negative campaigning suffers from several critical shortcomings, which - when addressed - show academic scepticism may not be as justifiable as previously thought. For one, the _eld routinely overlooks significant differences in the receptiveness of key voter subgroups, masking the effect of negativity via model under specification. Theoretical positions simply inapplicable to the modern context also continue to feature in much of the literature. Work on negative campaigning has also insufficiently accounted for two prominent contemporary changes in the campaign landscape: one regulatory, one technological. The major regulatory environment changes in the aftermath of Citizens United are well documented, yet in nearly a decade since the decision only a handful of experimental studies have explored whether sponsorship is an important determinant. In the meantime, negativity research almost universally continues its focus on television, despite campaigning unquestionably having 'gone digital.' These shortcomings, among others, demand we reconsider the effectiveness of negative campaigning. This thesis contributes to the body of research on negative political communication by identifying critical knowledge gaps, adopting methodologies capable of satisfying these needs, and developing theory which more fully explains the behaviour we expect of voters in the modern context on both mediums. In this effort, four major research questions are developed. To answer these four questions, hundreds of millions of observations are collected and analysed, a scale rarely seen in this _eld. The resulting robust analyses show negative campaigning can 'work' on television and on social media, depending on the circumstances of the attack and with varying influence across voter subgroups, but not all negativity works as attackers intend. In demonstrating the applicability of new methods necessary to expose much needed new evidence, and new theory to explain voter behaviour, the contributions within collectively call for a revitalization of research on negative political communication."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Going Negative in the Era of the Super PAC and Social Media: Negative Political Communication in the United States on Television and Facebook"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Kemp, Geoff","Curtin, Jennifer"],"dc:creator":["Phillips, Justin Bonest"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2019-11-26T02:01:15Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2019"],"dc:description.abstract":["Every presidential election cycle, billions of dollars are collectively spent by candidates and outside groups on political advertisements, aired on television and more recently on social media platforms. Increasingly, the bulk of these financial resources are devoted to attacking their opponents, and so negative campaigning stands on the precipice of becoming a billion dollar industry in the United States. The casual observer might therefore feel justified in assuming that such a means of political communication is an effective campaign strategy. As the logic goes, why else would campaigns spend so much money on it? However, until recently the academic evidence seemed quite definitive that 'going negative' was an ineffective - if not detrimental - campaign strategy. As this thesis demonstrates, the existing body of research on the effectiveness of negative campaigning suffers from several critical shortcomings, which - when addressed - show academic scepticism may not be as justifiable as previously thought. For one, the _eld routinely overlooks significant differences in the receptiveness of key voter subgroups, masking the effect of negativity via model under specification. Theoretical positions simply inapplicable to the modern context also continue to feature in much of the literature. Work on negative campaigning has also insufficiently accounted for two prominent contemporary changes in the campaign landscape: one regulatory, one technological. The major regulatory environment changes in the aftermath of Citizens United are well documented, yet in nearly a decade since the decision only a handful of experimental studies have explored whether sponsorship is an important determinant. In the meantime, negativity research almost universally continues its focus on television, despite campaigning unquestionably having 'gone digital.' These shortcomings, among others, demand we reconsider the effectiveness of negative campaigning. This thesis contributes to the body of research on negative political communication by identifying critical knowledge gaps, adopting methodologies capable of satisfying these needs, and developing theory which more fully explains the behaviour we expect of voters in the modern context on both mediums. In this effort, four major research questions are developed. To answer these four questions, hundreds of millions of observations are collected and analysed, a scale rarely seen in this _eld. The resulting robust analyses show negative campaigning can 'work' on television and on social media, depending on the circumstances of the attack and with varying influence across voter subgroups, but not all negativity works as attackers intend. In demonstrating the applicability of new methods necessary to expose much needed new evidence, and new theory to explain voter behaviour, the contributions within collectively call for a revitalization of research on negative political communication."],"dc:identifier.uri":["https://hdl.handle.net/2292/49214"],"dc:publisher":["ResearchSpace@Auckland"],"dc:relation.isreferencedby":["UoA99265326613302091"],"dc:rights":["Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher."],"dc:rights.uri":["https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm"],"dc:title":["Going Negative in the Era of the Super PAC and Social Media: Negative Political Communication in the United States on Television and Facebook"],"dc:type":["Thesis"],"thesis:degree_discipline":["Politics and International Relations"],"thesis:degree_level":["Doctoral"],"thesis:degree_name":["PhD"],"thesis:institution_name":["The University of Auckland"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-24T01:03:56Z"}