The economic and environmental benefits of genetically modified (GM) maize in South Africa have been well documented in previous literature. However, concerns about the longevity of these benefits, have been raised following reports of Busseola fusca developing resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize in South Africa in 2006. This study uses empirical data to estimate the potential impact of insect resistance on yields and estimates the economic and food availability impacts of genetic deterioration of Bt maize. Using data from South African National Maize Cultivar trials from 1989-2018, yield gains from Bt are observed to peak for Bt maize in 8 provinces from 2006-2010, causing estimated yield losses of 2,080,122 metric tons between 2008 and 2019, which is an estimated loss of $389.6 million USD.
","abstract_html":"<p>The economic and environmental benefits of genetically modified (GM) maize in South Africa have been well documented in previous literature. However, concerns about the longevity of these benefits, have been raised following reports of Busseola fusca developing resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize in South Africa in 2006. This study uses empirical data to estimate the potential impact of insect resistance on yields and estimates the economic and food availability impacts of genetic deterioration of Bt maize. Using data from South African National Maize Cultivar trials from 1989-2018, yield gains from Bt are observed to peak for Bt maize in 8 provinces from 2006-2010, causing estimated yield losses of 2,080,122 metric tons between 2008 and 2019, which is an estimated loss of $389.6 million USD. </p>","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Cooper, Courtney Fay"],"institution":null,"degree_name":"Master of Science in Agricultural Economics (MS)","degree_level":"Thesis","degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":["Nalley, Lawton L.","Chaminuka, Petronella"],"advisors":["Shew, Aaron M."],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2022,"date_issued":"2022-08-01T07:00:00Z","date_published":"2022-08-01T07:00:00Z","updated_at":"2026-07-24T00:59:15Z","subjects":["GM crops","food insecurity","Food Security"],"languages":[],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"https://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/4681","outbound_label":"Repository record","outbound_source":"dc:identifier"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor","label":"Contributor","values":["Nalley, Lawton L.","Chaminuka, Petronella"]},{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Shew, Aaron M."]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Cooper, Courtney Fay"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date","label":"Dc Date","values":["2022"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2024-02-06T08:00:00Z"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["Thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["Master of Science in Agricultural Economics (MS)"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["GM crops","food insecurity","Food Security"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["https://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/4681"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["The economic and environmental benefits of genetically modified (GM) maize in South Africa have been well documented in previous literature. However, concerns about the longevity of these benefits, have been raised following reports of Busseola fusca developing resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize in South Africa in 2006. This study uses empirical data to estimate the potential impact of insect resistance on yields and estimates the economic and food availability impacts of genetic deterioration of Bt maize. Using data from South African National Maize Cultivar trials from 1989-2018, yield gains from Bt are observed to peak for Bt maize in 8 provinces from 2006-2010, causing estimated yield losses of 2,080,122 metric tons between 2008 and 2019, which is an estimated loss of $389.6 million USD.
"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Evolution of Bacillus thuringiensis Maize Yields in South Africa"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor":["Nalley, Lawton L.","Chaminuka, Petronella"],"dc:contributor.advisor":["Shew, Aaron M."],"dc:creator":["Cooper, Courtney Fay"],"dc:date":["2022"],"dc:date.available":["2024-02-06T08:00:00Z"],"dc:description.abstract":["The economic and environmental benefits of genetically modified (GM) maize in South Africa have been well documented in previous literature. However, concerns about the longevity of these benefits, have been raised following reports of Busseola fusca developing resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize in South Africa in 2006. This study uses empirical data to estimate the potential impact of insect resistance on yields and estimates the economic and food availability impacts of genetic deterioration of Bt maize. Using data from South African National Maize Cultivar trials from 1989-2018, yield gains from Bt are observed to peak for Bt maize in 8 provinces from 2006-2010, causing estimated yield losses of 2,080,122 metric tons between 2008 and 2019, which is an estimated loss of $389.6 million USD.
"],"dc:identifier":["https://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/4681"],"dc:subject":["GM crops","food insecurity","Food Security"],"dc:title":["Evolution of Bacillus thuringiensis Maize Yields in South Africa"],"thesis:degree_level":["Thesis"],"thesis:degree_name":["Master of Science in Agricultural Economics (MS)"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-24T00:59:15Z"}