Changes of Winter Severity in Arkansas during 1901-2100
type: CreativeWork
description: The objective of this study was to quantify the winter severity in a way that was reproduceable and easy to understand. The Accumulated Winter Severity Seasonal Index (AWSSI) was chosen for this reason and was used to quantify winter severity by season across the state of Arkansas. The variables that go into the AWSSI calculation are maximum daily temperature, minimum daily temperature, daily snowfall, and daily snow depth. When the snowfall and snow depth were missing, they can be estimated using daily temperature and precipitation. Then the estimated snowfall and snow depth can be subsequently used to quantify the winter severity. The AWSSI calculated this way is named as (Precipitation Accumulated Winter Severity Seasonal Index) pAWSSI. Our evaluations suggested that pAWSSI can reasonably reproduce the temporal variation of AWSSI. Due to scarce snowfall and snow depth data in Arkansas, this study used the pAWSSI to examine the spatial and temporal variations of winter severity in Arkansas from 1901-2012 based on observations and from 2012- 2100 based on multiple climate model simulations. The long-term averaged pAWSSI suggested more harsher winter in the north and northwest Arkansas. The state averaged AWSSI suggest notable interannual variability. The most severe winters occurred in late 1970s and earlier 1980s, likely due to several severe snow storms in these years. There is an overall weak downward trend before middle 1970s, followed by notable decreasing AWSSI scores, suggesting less harsher winters in recent decades. However, the start, end, and length of winter season in AR show weak spatial and temporal variations. The temporal variations in pAWSSI are largely controlled by winter temperature. There was less snowfall in warm winters and hence smaller pAWSSI. The decreasing pAWSSI (less cold winter) is associated with warming temperature, especially in the recent several decades. The temporal variations of pAWSSI are also influenced by large-scale atmosphe…
abstract: The objective of this study was to quantify the winter severity in a way that was reproduceable and easy to understand. The Accumulated Winter Severity Seasonal Index (AWSSI) was chosen for this reason and was used to quantify winter severity by season across the state of Arkansas. The variables that go into the AWSSI calculation are maximum daily temperature, minimum daily temperature, daily snowfall, and daily snow depth. When the snowfall and snow depth were missing, they can be estimated using daily temperature and precipitation. Then the estimated snowfall and snow depth can be subsequently used to quantify the winter severity. The AWSSI calculated this way is named as (Precipitation Accumulated Winter Severity Seasonal Index) pAWSSI. Our evaluations suggested that pAWSSI can reasonably reproduce the temporal variation of AWSSI. Due to scarce snowfall and snow depth data in Arkansas, this study used the pAWSSI to examine the spatial and temporal variations of winter severity in Arkansas from 1901-2012 based on observations and from 2012- 2100 based on multiple climate model simulations. The long-term averaged pAWSSI suggested more harsher winter in the north and northwest Arkansas. The state averaged AWSSI suggest notable interannual variability. The most severe winters occurred in late 1970s and earlier 1980s, likely due to several severe snow storms in these years. There is an overall weak downward trend before middle 1970s, followed by notable decreasing AWSSI scores, suggesting less harsher winters in recent decades. However, the start, end, and length of winter season in AR show weak spatial and temporal variations. The temporal variations in pAWSSI are largely controlled by winter temperature. There was less snowfall in warm winters and hence smaller pAWSSI. The decreasing pAWSSI (less cold winter) is associated with warming temperature, especially in the recent several decades. The temporal variations of pAWSSI are also influenced by large-scale atmosphe…
author: Garcia, Christian
keywords: Climate, GIS, Index, Models, Weather, Winter, Atmospheric Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography
date published: 2022-08-01T07:00:00Z
date modified: 2026-07-24T00:59:32Z
provider: University of Arkansas
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: University of Arkansas