Trends in fertility in Australia, 1911-1961
The examination of various investigations on Australian fertility showed that, in most of these, the variations in fertility were studied on the basis of rates specific for either age or duration of marriage or order of birth. Further, in none of these studies were marital fertility rates calculated by using the annual number of females at risk. In the present investigation, an attempt has been made to study the trends in fertility since 1911 on the basis of rates specific for age as well as for duration of marriage, which rates were available only for census years. The calculation of these rates for the intercensal years necessitated the filling of many gaps in the basic data by various estimation procedures designed to provide the required denominators. These estimations required a number of assumptions, particularly relating to the age and duration of marriage o components of change in the number of married females due to death, widowhood, divorce and migration. Before using the intercensal estimates thus derived it was necessary to test their accuracy. The test applied was to work forward from each census to estimate the numbers of females by age and duration of marriage as at the succeeding census and to compare these numbers with those enumerated. The margin of error in the results turned out to be tolerable and the results surprisingly satisfactory for most purposes.
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