Infectious Diseases Attributable to Non-optimal Temperature in Australia: Current Burden and Future Projections in a Changing Climate
type: CreativeWork
description: Background: Climate change poses significant risks for emerging and re-emerging of infectious diseases. While studies have documented the association between non-optimal temperature and infectious disease transmission, evidence for the temperature-attributable burden of these diseases using comprehensive measures like Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) remains limited. This study aimed to quantify the current and future national and sub-national temperature-attributable burden of Ross River virus (RRV), Salmonella, and Campylobacter infections in Australia. Methodology: The method utilised in this thesis followed the Comparative Risk Assessment framework, aligned with the Global Burden of Disease and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW)’s Australian Burden of Disease methodologies. Data on DALYs due to RRV, Salmonella, and Campylobacter infections for 2003–2018 were obtained from AIHW. The temperature-attributable burden was estimated using a three-step process: First, systematic reviews and meta-analyses determined the relative risk (RR) per 1°C increase in temperature for the selected diseases. Next, these RRs were adjusted to the Australian context using a multivariate meta-regression model to obtain location-specific RRs for each Statistical Area Level 2 (suburbs), which, combined with gridded temperature data, derived the population attributable fractions (PAFs). Finally, the PAFs were applied to the annual average DALYs to estimate the temperature-attributable burden. Future projections for the 2030s and 2050s were made using downscaled climate models under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), considering demographic changes and human adaptation to climate change. Results: During the baseline period (2003-2018), increasing non-optimal temperatures accounted for 19.1% (35.8 YLD), 11.2% (41.8 DALYs), and 8.5% (28.1 DALYs) of the observed burden for RRV, Salmonella, and Campylobacter infections in Australia, respectivel…
abstract: Background: Climate change poses significant risks for emerging and re-emerging of infectious diseases. While studies have documented the association between non-optimal temperature and infectious disease transmission, evidence for the temperature-attributable burden of these diseases using comprehensive measures like Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) remains limited. This study aimed to quantify the current and future national and sub-national temperature-attributable burden of Ross River virus (RRV), Salmonella, and Campylobacter infections in Australia. Methodology: The method utilised in this thesis followed the Comparative Risk Assessment framework, aligned with the Global Burden of Disease and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW)’s Australian Burden of Disease methodologies. Data on DALYs due to RRV, Salmonella, and Campylobacter infections for 2003–2018 were obtained from AIHW. The temperature-attributable burden was estimated using a three-step process: First, systematic reviews and meta-analyses determined the relative risk (RR) per 1°C increase in temperature for the selected diseases. Next, these RRs were adjusted to the Australian context using a multivariate meta-regression model to obtain location-specific RRs for each Statistical Area Level 2 (suburbs), which, combined with gridded temperature data, derived the population attributable fractions (PAFs). Finally, the PAFs were applied to the annual average DALYs to estimate the temperature-attributable burden. Future projections for the 2030s and 2050s were made using downscaled climate models under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), considering demographic changes and human adaptation to climate change. Results: During the baseline period (2003-2018), increasing non-optimal temperatures accounted for 19.1% (35.8 YLD), 11.2% (41.8 DALYs), and 8.5% (28.1 DALYs) of the observed burden for RRV, Salmonella, and Campylobacter infections in Australia, respectivel…
author: Damtew, Yohannes Tefera
language: en
keywords: Adaptation, Attributable burden, Burden of disease Campylobacter infection, Climate change, Climate zone, Infectious diseases, Non-optimal temperature Projection, Relative Risk, Rising temperature, Ross River virus infection, Salmonella infection
date published: 2024
date modified: 2026-07-24T00:50:53Z
provider: University of Adelaide
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: University of Adelaide

PropertyValue
property ID: Handle
value: https://hdl.handle.net/2440/144770