Global ETD Search
Search theses and dissertations gathered from participating repositories worldwide. Every result links back to the library that holds it. No account is needed.
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Showing 1 to 20 of 27 for “"internal variability"”.
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Quantification of internal variability of the arctic summer atmosphere based on HIRHAM5 ensemble simulations
… Due to these non-linearities, chaos and internal variability (IV) within the RCMs are induced, leading to a sensitivity of RCMs to their initial conditions (IC). The IV is the ability of RCMs to realise different solutions of simulations that differ in their IC, but have the same lower …
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The importance of ocean internal variability for coupled climate modeling in the community earth system model
… the uncertainty due to coupled atmosphere-ocean internal variability, utilizing a global coupled climate model ensemble (the Community Earth System Model; CESM). Here, this work poses key science questions related to quantifying internal variability in three different model variables, all of …
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Fingerprints and Drivers of Recent Changes in Oceanic Oxygen: From Regional to Global Scales
… oxygen concentration ([O2]) relative to natural internal variability is examined using statistical methods which synthesise historical measurements and ocean biogeochemistry model output. Using a formal optimal fingerprinting method, an externally forced signal, derived from ESM response …
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Internal and structural variability in global urban climate projections in CMIP6
… climate change should include the roles of internal variability, model parametric and structural uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. Quantitative attributions of the structure of these uncertainties have been typically done for non-urban surfaces at regional scales using multi-modeled …
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Analyzing the effects of unforced natural variability and anthropogenic forcing on ENSO variability using CESM
… contributor to Earth’s inter-annual climate variability, with worldwide weather effects (Whetton and Rutherfurd, 1994; Hoerling and Zhong, 1997; Dai and Wigley, 2000). Understanding how ENSO may change with climate is a major challenge, given the internal variability of the system and …
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The influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on mid-latitude weather and climate: exploring sensitivities and mechanisms
… response to sea-ice loss is small relative to internal climate variability, and modelling studies find contrasting climatological mean responses to imposed sea-ice loss. Since all climate models project a continuation of Arctic sea-ice loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic …
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Understanding the Effect of Internal Climate Variability on 20th Century Indian Ocean Sea Level: Results from Newly Reconstructed Sea Level Data
… influenced by interannual to multi-decadal variability. To accurately project future Indian Ocean sea level trends using altimeter data it is imperative that trends associated with fluctuating internal variability (interannual-decadal) be identified and extracted, which in turn requires long …
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Response to stratospheric forcing and its dependence on the state of the troposphere
… timescale associated with the leading mode of variability was unrealistically large, which ultimately led to the exaggerated responses. Numerous experiments confirmed the tropospheric setup lay in a transition zone in the model's parameter space, teetering between an eddy-driven jet (1) …
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Estimating the likelihood of significant climate change with the NCAR 40-member ensemble
… external forcing, but since it filters out the variability, it cannot determine if the response is significant. In this study, the NCAR CCSM 40-member ensemble and a lag-1 autoregressive model (AR1 model) are used to estimate the likelihood that climate trends will be significant. The AR1 model …
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Exploration of natural climate variability and changes in future events using observations, proxy data and model simulations
… and the planet’s orbital configuration; and internally generated changes arising from the natural interactions among these Earth systems. Herein I attempt to make a contribution to the current understanding of the history of the recent past as it relates to natural climatic changes by making …
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Assessment of the impacts of climate change, land cover transition, and internal climate variability on the hydrology of a forested watershed
… the role of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability in projected changes of watershed runoff. Analyses are performed in the historical and future time frames corresponding to global mean temperature increases of 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 °C compared to the preindustrial …
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Particleboard simulation model to improve machined surface quality
… manufacturing costs. A major challenge is PB’s internal variability. Different particle and glue bond strength combinations can sometimes create high quality surfaces in one area and defects such as edge chipping in nearby areas. This research examines methods of improving surface quality by …
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Oceanic control of the sea ice edge and multiple equilibria in the climate system
… persist despite a seasonal cycle and vigorous internal variability. Simulations with slowly-evolving thermal forcing show that some transitions between the ice-free and large ice cap states are abrupt. Multiple equilibria are explored in uncoupled simulations with prescribed OHT. The large ice …
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On intraseasonal variability in the tropics: tropical cyclones, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and equatorial waves
… addresses some aspects of tropical intraseasonal variability, which is dominated by tropical cyclones, equatorial waves, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Because these phenomena have significant societal impacts on sub-seasonal time scales, and it is important to understand how they …
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Forced and Unforced Permafrost Changes in the Northern Hemisphere during 1901-2100
… and overestimates the relative contribution from internal climate variability. When multiple CMIP6 models were analyzed, internal variability plays a minor role compared with anthropogenic forcing over the permafrost region as a whole, especially in a future warmer world. Model uncertainty is the …
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El Niño Southern Oscillation teleconnections and their effects on the Amundsen Sea region
… reanalysis data available to overcome the high internal variability in the ASR. In this thesis, the linearity of the teleconnection under El Niño is studied using the time--slice runs. The results indicate linearity (within errorbars) for both the summer and winter seasons up to historically …
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Regional summer climate variability and change over North America in the 20th Century
The climate of North America reflects the natural variability of global atmospheric circulation, and is impacted by two primary anthropogenic forcings: increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULC). The objective of this thesis is to quantify the relative …
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Decadal to centennial-scale climate interactions across the Indo-Pacific region
… of decadal to centennial-scale climate variability is critical for properly attributing recently observed low-frequency changes to internal climate oscillations and/or anthropogenic forcings as well as improving predictability of decadal variability. This thesis investigates ocean and …
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