Global ETD Search
Search theses and dissertations gathered from participating repositories worldwide. Every result links back to the library that holds it. No account is needed.
Results
Showing 1 to 15 of 15 for “"expert elicitation"”.
-
A framework for nuclear facility safeguard evaluation using probabilistic methods and expert elicitation
… per attempt. The success tree methodology and expert elicitation is used to construct logical models and obtain the probabilities of basic events. Then proliferator diversion success probabilities can be derived from the model for all possible scenarios in a given facility. Using Rokkasho …
-
Optimally aggregating elicited expertise : a proposed application of the Bayesian Truth Serum for policy analysis
… in inaccurate estimates of risk and uncertainty. Expert elicitation is a formal, structured method of obtaining subjective expert judgment in scenarios where objective data is unobtainable. It is designed to reduce the influence of ambiguity on expert judgment, meaning that analysts may use such …
-
Statistical risk estimation for communication system design
… the complexity of the problem and the different expertise required to develop a complete risk model for a spacecraft design, the scope of this research is focused on risk estimation for a specific spacecraft subsystem: the communication subsystem. The current research aims to be a "proof of …
-
Risk-Benefit Assessment of Pandemic Virus Identification
… Using a combination of mathematical modeling and expert elicitation, we developed a structured approach to estimate the potential impacts of PVI. Our framework suggests that identifying a single pandemic-capable virus through PVI could potentially save lives by reducing natural pandemic risks. …
-
Evaluation of human error probabilities for post-initiating events
… because the quantification is dependent on expert elicitation to produce data instead of relying on a database or set of nominal values. The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method uses eight performance shaping factors to modify nominal values in order to …
-
The impact of Arctic amplification on the extratropical jets
… consensus within the scientific community using expert elicitation. Results reveal a fairly evenly split on if Arctic warming has already had a significant impact on the mid-latitude jets, but a strong consensus that it will in the future.
-
Risk assessment of groundwater contamination from hydraulic fracturing fluid spills in Pennsylvania
… these sources using results from a preliminary expert elicitation. It then develops a stochastic groundwater contaminant transport model to analyze the worst-case potential for groundwater contamination in local water wells. Finally, it discusses the range of risk perception and incentives from …
-
Accounting for Variability and Uncertainty in Life Cycle Assessments: Oil Sands Case Studies
… (e.g., Mining SCO pathway). In the final study, expert elicitation methods are employed to assess the potential role for emerging technologies to decrease upstream GHG intensity between 2014 and 2034. Experts surveyed do not expect emerging technologies to play a major role in reducing upstream …
-
Improving a priori emission estimates using network observations and a perturbed emissions ensemble: a study in Beijing
… ranges, which are determined on the basis of expert elicitation. This PEE is then input to an air quality model to generate an ensemble of forward simulations. By comparing the simulation outputs with in-situ measurements of pollutant concentrations from a dense network, the initial …
-
Defining, measuring and regulating energy security
… measures and composite indicators based on expert elicitation are very rough heuristics that can easily be shown to produce inaccurate results. Simple modelling approaches such as analysis based on portfolio theory, or electricity system simulations offer some improvement, but still suffer …
-
Assessing resource curse risks in namibia's green hydrogen developments with insights from diamond mining
… The anticipatory part presents an expert elicitation, combining a survey with semi-structured interviews. The two parts are jointly analysed to offer quantitative and qualitative insights into the nuances of the green hydrogen industry and potential risks. The study acknowledges …
-
Bayesian Methods to Characterize Uncertainty in Predictive Modeling of the Effect of Urbanization on Aquatic Ecosystems
… conditional probabilities, and includes both expert knowledge and data. Utilizing this Bayesian framework, this dissertation develops a series of statistically rigorous and ecologically interpretable models predicting the effect of urbanization on invertebrates, as well as a unique, systematic …
-
Spatio-temporal probabilistic methodology to estimate location-specific loss-of-coolant accident frequencies for risk-informed analysis of nuclear power plants
… of LOCA frequencies were developed through an expert elicitation approach, provided in NUREG-1829. These estimations provided an implicit incorporation of underlying physics, space, and time. In support of the South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) risk-informed pilot project to …
-
Bayesian risk management : "Frequency does not make you smarter"
… well as (2)an open-minded incorporation of human expertise in risk management. In this dissertation we formulize a framework for BRM based on the two pillars Hardcore-Bayesianism (HCB) and Softcore-Bayesianism (SCB) providing solutions for the claims above. For data analysis we favor Bayesian …
-
Methodologies to strategize the utilization of modeling and simulation for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants: Applications in fire PRA
… and simulation (M&S) of underlying phenomena, expert elicitation, or hybrid approaches that integrate these methods. Presently, there is a growing reliance on M&S in the PRA of NPPs for several reasons: (i) having limited empirical data for advanced reactors, (ii) questioning the relevance of …