Global ETD Search
Search theses and dissertations gathered from participating repositories worldwide. Every result links back to the library that holds it. No account is needed.
Results
Showing 1 to 11 of 11 for “"ensemble forecasting"”.
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Ensemble forecasting in the Mediterranean sea
A new methodology is being devised for ensemble ocean forecasting using distributions of the surface wind field derived from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). The ocean members are forced with samples from the posterior distribution of the wind during the assimilation of satellite and in-situ …
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Assessing uncertainty propagation of precipitation input in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting systems
… hydrological response in hydrometeorological ensemble systems for flood prediction. The study has been preliminary focused on the development of a hydrometeorological system that couples a statistical precipitation downscaling model, known as STRAIN, with a fully-distributed hydrological …
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Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting
This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting was developed to overcome the limitations of conventional deterministic …
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Multi-sensor large scale land surface data assimilation using ensemble approaches
One of the ensemble Kalman filter's (EnKF) attractive features in land surface applications is its ability to provide distributional information. The EnKF relies on normality approximations that improve its efficiency but can also compromise the accuracy of its distributional estimates. The effects …
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Atmospheric Lagrangian transport structures and their applications to aerobiology
… determine the sensitivity of such predictions to forecasting parameters. In addition, we consider the spatiotemporal resolution of the operational data sets and we propose the concept of probabilistic source and destination regions which leads to the definition of stochastic FTLE fields. Moreover, …
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Integrated regional enstrophy and its correlation with regime transitions in the Northern Hemisphere
… initial and forecast fields for the Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) (on a 1[degrees] 1[degrees] latitude-longitude grid) provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather Prediction Center (WPC) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction / …
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Analysis, Modeling, and Forecasting Of Urban Flooding
… to assist with its analysis, modeling, and forecasting. To do this, three research objectives were fulfilled. First, the Stream Hydrology And Rainfall Knowledge System (SHARKS) app was developed to improve upon existing real-time hydrologic and meteorological data retrieval/visualization …
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Improving numerical weather prediction: error growth at the convective scale and speed
… is in need of improvements is convective-scale forecasting. The advantages of more accurate forecasting derive from the high societal impact of convective events, which can be severe and lead to loss of life and property. Ensemble forecasting is an ideal tool to handle uncertainties in forecasts …
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Deep Learning-based Time Series Forecasting: Models and Applications
… of complex data, time series modeling and forecasting have always been hot topics. In the big data environment, time series often have the characteristics of multi-source complexity, dynamic heterogeneity, uncertainty, and nonlinearity, which brings tremendous challenges to the processing …
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Simulating eco-hydrological feedbacks and resilience of blanket bogs in the context of climate change
… to be projected into the future using an ensemble forecasting approach. The driving climate projections followed three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The simulations predict that …
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Toward better subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction: physics-oriented model evaluation and predictability of tropical cyclones
… S2S prediction, bridging the traditional weather forecasting and climate prediction, remains a challenge for global numerical models. This is mostly because the sources of predictability on S2S timescales are not fully understood and/or not well represented in global models. My Ph.D. thesis …