Global ETD Search
Search theses and dissertations gathered from participating repositories worldwide. Every result links back to the library that holds it. No account is needed.
Results
Showing 1 to 19 of 19 for “"belief updating"”.
-
Information selection and belief updating in hypothesis evaluation
… likelihood of evidence with regard to background beliefs. It is argued - in contrast with other views in the literature - that subjects' choice of evidence to test hypotheses is rational allowing for certain constraints on subjects' cognitive representations. The majority of experiments in this …
-
Three papers on belief updating and its applications
The normative foundation (axioms) of Bayesian belief updating has long been established in the literature of decision science. However, psychology and experiments suggest that while rational decision making is ideal, it is rarely achievable for ordinary people. Therefore, it is important to explore …
-
Assessing the effect of negative mood states on valence-dependent belief updating
… happening to them and fail to update these beliefs adequately when provided with statistical evidence. However, depressed populations are better able to accurately update beliefs. It is not clear if the ability to update beliefs effectively is due to overall dysphoria or are partially due to …
-
Essays on Mechanisms Underlying Belief Updating with Applications in Wisdom of Crowds
… on understanding how people update their beliefs after learning about others’ opinions and how we can leverage belief-updating to improve Wisdom of Crowds. In Chapter One, I propose a new Revealed Expertise (RE) algorithm that uses the “RE measure”, which is a scaled amount of belief …
-
Identify experts through Revealed Confidence : application to Wisdom of Crowds
… for rational overconfidence. Under our proposed belief updating mechanism, we analyze the performance of RC algorithm and show the algorithm could identify the more accurate prior estimates even if all agents report the same prior confidence under conventional confidence elicitation, e.g. …
-
Cognitive Microfoundations of Industry Foresight and Strategic Investments: Evidence Within the Global Automotive Industry
… Chapter 1 finds evidence that Bayesian belief updating helps generate superior industry foresight, especially under moderate uncertainty, and that not updating beliefs at all, or updating but overreacting to new information significantly penalizes forecasting accuracy. Chapter 2 finds …
-
Pre-Learning Interventions Modulate Learning from Error
… learn from error— motivation, emotion, prior beliefs, and individual differences can all influence learning and memory. In this dissertation, I synthesize diverse evidence from across domains to argue that lingering cognitive and neural states create a context of learning that governs how and …
-
Essays on Online Platforms and Human-Algorithm Interaction
… gains from AI assistance because of errors in belief updating – they underweight AI predictions and treat their own information and AI predictions as statistically independent.
-
Using laboratory experiments to study otherwise unobservable labor market interactions
… we track the evolution of trustors' individual beliefs about trustworthiness types of trustees to document that subjects process information in an asymmetric way compared to a perfect Bayesian: they react more to negative feedback rather than positive. We show that our empirical results arise …
-
Consumers' purchasing behaviour under risk and uncertainty: three essays on food authenticity
… Specifically, the role of subjective beliefs, risk and ambiguity attitudes, and information. I focus on food purchasing decisions with uncertainty about the quality generated by food fraud.<br/><br/>The first essay uses an artefactual field experiment to explore bidding behaviour under …
-
Beta EEG as a Correlate of Belief-Reasoning in Preschoolers
Reasoning about beliefs is difficult, especially when others hold beliefs that conflict with one’s own. A milestone in Theory of Mind development is understanding false beliefs: the realization that others may hold representations of the world that differ from one’s own perspective (Wellman & …
-
Neural Mechanisms For Learning In Dynamic Environments
… adaptive behavior. People should maintain their beliefs about the environmental state when it is stable and they should quickly update their beliefs when the environmental state changes. Belief updating can be guided by prediction errors, which are the difference between the expected observation …
-
Essays on peer-to-peer lending
… theoretical framework to explain the buyers' belief-updating process before deciding whether to purchase a note or not in the secondary market.
-
Essays on the Behavioral Economics of Mental Health and Belief Formation
… topics in mental health, decision-making, and belief formation. They leverage randomized experiments to evaluate the impact of three interventions, and new ``lab-in-the-field'' incentivized surveys and games to measure outcomes. The first chapter studies the effects of mindfulness meditation on …
-
Psychotic experiences beyond psychotic disorders: from measurement to computational mechanisms
… than non-paranoid unusual perceptions and beliefs. Childhood adversity was associated with both PE-prone groups, but later social support from family and friends was far higher in those with PEs and low depressive symptoms than those with PEs and high depressive symptoms. Subsequently, I …
-
Essays in environmental economics
… The first chapter estimates how individuals' beliefs about climate change are affected by local weather fluctuations. Climate change is a one-time uncertain event with no opportunities for learning; the belief updating process may not be fully Bayesian. Using unique survey data on beliefs …
-
Essays in political economy of media and communication
… those who read randomly provided articles. The belief updating and media selection patterns are consistent with the model's predictions, suggesting that the mechanism explained in the model is plausible. The findings suggest that the designers of news curation algorithms and their regulators …
-
Altruism and the role of affect: an investigation into the causal effects of positive emotions and its rationality on altruism
… of three modularised workshops covering self-belief, goal-orientation, creative thinking, problem solving, resilience, communication skills, trust building, project management, and political engagement. These interventions are theorised to lead to an actualisation of greater pro-social …
-
Essays in Discrimination, Informational Preferences, and Social Preferences Under Uncertainty
… findings are likely driven by taste rather than belief-based partiality. Chapter 3: The Sunk Cost in Performance Beliefs We test whether real-effort costs influence how people update beliefs about their performance. We find that paying a cost to observe feedback alters belief adjustments, but is …