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Showing 1 to 18 of 18 for “"Subjective Probability"”.
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The Application of the Additivity Theorem to Subjective Probability
… validity of applying the additivity theorem to subjective estimates of probability. Additivity, as used herein, refers to the process of adding the probability of the occurrence of an event and the probability of the non-occurrence of the same event and arriving at a total of one.
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A comparison of aggregation methods of subjective probability distributions
One of the goals of psychological research on subjective judgments is to develop procedures that can improve judgment aggregation quality. The need to aggregate various judgments arises since in many cases the decision maker is uncertain about the possible outcomes of his decisions solicits …
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A Comparison of Estimates of Relative Frequency vs. Subjective Probability
… extend the investigation of the general area of subjective probability by exploring three methods of asking for estimates. Inasmuch as this area has not been a major focus of interest for experimental studies, a brief review of the kinds of studies emanating from subjective probability notions …
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A Subjective Probability Framework for Generating Input Values for Single-Index Portfolio Analysis
Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-11T23:19:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 7212156.pdf: 3411947 bytes, checksum: 6b784a599320be5480fe4a70e71399e5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 1971
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The P300 Component of The Cortical Event-Related Potential as an Index of Subjective Probability and Processing Duration
Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-13T18:22:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 7913504.pdf: 7478534 bytes, checksum: 84551203ece50ceb77ac589e8875f718 (MD5) Previous issue date: 1978
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Analysis of Price Expectations of Select Illinois Hog Producers
This dissertation identifies and models the subjective probability distribution of an unknown decision variable, hog price expectations. The four specific goals were: (1) to describe the shape of the subjective probability distribution; (2) to examine how the expectations behave over time and …
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Revision of Subjective Probabilities Under a Bayesian Model
… of this study was to examine the degree to which subjective probability judgments conform to the Bayesian model of mathematical probability theory; more specifically, the degree to which subjective probability estimates for intersections of events approximate the product of the subjective …
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Testing the Nonextensionality of Support Theory: A Generalization to Dual Disjunctions
… ST, the conjunction error, overconfidence, and subjective probability research in general are discussed.
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Subjective expectations and individual decisions of future graduate students
… I study these decisions by analyzing subjective expectations of future college graduate students. In chapter one I use the survey and data collection of Delavande and Zafar and for the second and third chapter I designed one survey and did the data collection in Bogotá, Colombia. …
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Imagination inflation with posttest delays: how long will it last?
… happened. Imagination inflation occurs when the subjective probability that an event occurred increases after it has been imagined. Imagination inflation is typically demonstrated using a pretest-posttest design. A familiarity-attribution model for imagination inflation is proposed. The model …
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Belief and evidence
… has problems of its own. Chapter 2, 'Belief and Probability,' argues that rational belief doesn't reduce to subjective probability. Under the right circumstances, I argue, acquiring conflicting evidence can defeat your entitlement to believe a certain hypothesis without probabilistically …
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Customer Focussed Technology Selection Using Expert Opinion. Incorporating the 'Voice of the Customer' and Expert Opinion in Technology Selection.
… expert opinion analysis methods used for subjective probability risk analysis. The analysis methods enabled different technology combinations to be assessed and customer requirements for different target products to be incorporated to provide a route for optimum technology selection to …
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Essays on information and insurance markets
… methodology to estimate these measures that uses subjective probability elicitations as noisy measures of agents' beliefs. I apply the approach to three non-group markets: long-term care (LTC), disability, and life insurance. Consistent with the predictions of the theory, in all three settings I …
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Subjective Probabilities in Choice Experiments' Design: Three Essays
… of three essays investigates the influence of subjective probabilities on decision making processes under conditions of risk. In particular, it examines whether subjects adjust new risk information on their prior subjective estimates, and, to what extent this adjustment affects their choices. …
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Three Essays in Experimental Economics
… human decision makers hold biased beliefs about probability and that free-form communication between economic agents promotes cooperation far in excess of what standard theory predicts. First, Chapter 2 studies subjective probability, focusing on the well-established existence of both the Hot …
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Banks and inflation
… of interest only after a time lag, or if their subjective probability distribution of expected returns on income earning assets is biased downward, banks are in a position to earn some windfall gains from inflation. The third section of the dissertation analyzes bank portfolio behavior under …
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Residential Satisfaction and Behavioural Intentions - A Study of Private Housing in Hong Kong
… intention towards developers refers to the subjective probability that a person will purchase a property from a developer. This study focuses on developing a reliable and valid instrument to measure the residential satisfaction of private housing residents in Hong Kong. A literature review …
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The Road Taken: A Between And Within Subjects Study Of Intervention Selection Decisions By Performance Improvement Professionals
… by selecting an intervention, providing a prior probability (Pr<sub>2</sub>), receiving additional evidence, giving a posterior probability (Pr<sub>3</sub>), indicating whether the initial intervention was still preferred and making a subsequent choice if not. <strong>Results:</strong> Repeated …