Global ETD Search
Search theses and dissertations gathered from participating repositories worldwide. Every result links back to the library that holds it. No account is needed.
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Showing 1 to 11 of 11 for “"Prediction Markets"”.
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Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets
Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction Markets for business decision-making. We configured a Prediction Market …
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Prediction markets for cost and risk assessment
… future events with their collective wisdom. A prediction market is one such tool that provides an environment for traders to buy and sell contracts, whose values are tied to uncertain future events. Efficient prediction markets have been shown to outperform available polls and other forecasting …
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The application of prediction markets to business
According to financial theory, open markets efficiently and effectively aggregate all available information about future events into their prices. Recent empirical evidence has shown that speculative markets, from gambling to web-games, are better at predicting the future than more commonly used …
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Simulating prediction markets that include human and automated agents
… trading agents with simpler agents in a prediction market. The goal is to simulate markets with both human and computer agents, and investigate ways to maximize the performance of these markets. I start with the neural net-based agent that is currently used in CCI's collective prediction …
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Essays on the behaviour of political and financial markets
… and relationships between financial and prediction markets around elections. We begin by reviewing the literature. There are many small studies of individual elections and events, particularly of the 2016 UK European Union referendum. However, no studies that consider multiple events, nor …
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Architecture of a prediction economy
A design and implementation of a Prediction Economy is presented and compared to alternative designs. A Prediction Economy is composed of prediction markets, market managers, information brokers and automated trading agents. Two important goals of a Prediction Economy are to improve liquidity and …
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Combining human and machine intelligence for making predictions
… computers can use vast amounts of data to make predictions that are often more accurate than those by human experts, humans are still more adept at processing unstructured information and at recognizing unusual circumstances and their consequences. Can we combine predictions from humans and …
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Eliciting and Aggregating Information for Better Decision Making
… Next, we consider the design of decentralized prediction markets, which are defined by the lack of any single trusted authority. As a consequence, markets must be closed by popular vote amongst a group of anonymous, untrusted arbiters. We design a mechanism that incentivizes arbiters to …
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Evolutionary supply chain risk management : transforming culture for sustainable competitive advantage
… for developing creative solutions, specifically, prediction markets and credit derivatives concepts. In conclusion, we argue that evolutionary risk management processes accompanied by a radical shift in business risk culture are required to achieve competitive advantage through supply chain risk …
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Bayesian risk management : "Frequency does not make you smarter"
Within our research group Bayesian Risk Solutions we have coined the idea of a Bayesian Risk Management (BRM). It claims (1) a more transparent and diligent data analysis as well as (2)an open-minded incorporation of human expertise in risk management. In this dissertation we formulize a framework …