Global ETD Search
Search theses and dissertations gathered from participating repositories worldwide. Every result links back to the library that holds it. No account is needed.
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Showing 1 to 6 of 6 for “"Forecast bias"”.
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When Do Signals Counteract The Effects of Confirmation Bias? Evidence From Sell-Side Analysts’ Forecasts
… signals counteract the effects of confirmation bias in sell-side analysts’ stock price forecasts when these signals are contradictory. I use target prices to measure forecast bias and the growth in Earnings Per Share as signals, and regress analysts’ forecast bias over different deciles of high …
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Getting rivals to back off? Biasing sales forecasts to reduce competition
… of strategic competition on management sales forecast bias. Strategic complement firms react to a rival’s action by moving in the same direction (e.g., increasing their own sales in response to a rival’s sales increase). Strategic substitute firms react to a rival’s action by moving in the …
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Essays in Household and Behavioral Finance
… chapter studies the properties of subjective forecasts relative to econometric forecasts at different forecast horizons. In the context of corporate earnings forecasts, we find that sell-side equity analyst forecasts outperform econometric forecasts in the short run but underperform in the …
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Stocks, bonds and volatility in financial markets
… to predict future stock market returns, and its forecasting power is significant in both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. It is also robust to various equity premium predictors, subsample periods, long-horizon forecast bias, and small-sample bias. The second essay, Treasury Bill Yields: …
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International Organizations as Information Providers: How Investors and Governments Utilize Optimistic IMF Forecasts
… that demonstrate the same pattern in the Fund's forecasting activities. What is missing in this literature is how other actors such as investors and incumbent governments respond to this behavior and utilize optimistic macroeconomic forecasts. This dissertation argues that optimistic IMF …
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Behavioural Macro-Financial Cycles
… realistic length to estimate a conditionally unbiased predictor of future variables, such as rational expectations. It is also often not optimal, in terms of forecast error, to minimise the conditional biases imposed, as using statistically simple expectations will often reduce forecast variance …