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Showing 1 to 20 of 93 for “"Forecast accuracy"”.
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Improving forecast accuracy and use
Thesis (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; in conjunction with the Leaders for Manufacturing Program at MIT, 2003.
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A Framework for Analyzing Forecast Accuracy Metrics
Demand Planning forecasts at Nike, Inc. are used by many groups: Supply Planning/Materials Planning, Sourcing, Categories/Merchandising, Finance, S&OP, and Sales. These groups take forecasts as an input to make key decisions. Forecasts, by nature, will be inaccurate. There are two big unknowns to …
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On improving the forecast accuracy of the hidden Markov model
The forecast accuracy of a hidden Markov model (HMM) may be low due first, to the measure of forecast accuracy being ignored in the parameterestimation method and, second, to overfitting caused by the large number of parameters that must be estimated. A general approach to forecasting is described …
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General manager characteristics, demand forecast accuracy, and decision quality in new firms
… changing business environment, accurate demand forecasting is increasingly important to business decision making. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between general manager (GM) characteristic, demand forecast accuracy and decision quality in new firms. A framework is …
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The effects of energy storage properties and forecast accuracy on mitigating variability in wind power generation
… generation to fluctuate. Additionally, wind forecasting does not perfectly predict wind generation, so it is difficult for wind to meet a generation schedule. Therefore, with increased wind production, there is a need for flexibility in the electricity grid. Electricity storage is one method …
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The Effect of Earnings Quality on Analyst Forecast Accuracy, Dispersion, and Optimism and Implications for CEO Compensation
… the impact of earnings quality on earnings forecast accuracy, forecast dispersion, and forecast optimism of individual financial analysts. The primary model employed for analyst forecast accuracy is consistent with Barniv et al. (2005), Clement (1999), and Jacob et al. (1999). Further …
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Determinants of Intellectual Capital Disclosure and its Impacts on Audit Effort and Analyst Forecast Accuracy: UK Evidence
… impacts on audit effort and analysts’ forecasts. In order to address these research objectives, a content analysis of IC disclosure (a self-constructed index of 64 coded items) in strategic reports released by FTST 350 companies is used. The content analysis captures and measures IC …
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An analysis of the accuracy and determinants of earnings forecasts of companies listing on the alternative exchange of South Africa
This study analyses earnings forecast accuracy and bias, and the determinants of earnings forecast accuracy, for firms listed on the Alternative Exchange (AltX) in South Africa.
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Effect of override size on forecast value add
Business forecasting frequently combines quantitative time series techniques with qualitative expert opinion overrides to create a final consensus forecast. The objective of these overrides is to reduce forecast error, which enables safety stock reduction, customer service improvement, and …
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Extending volatility models with market sentiment indicators
In this thesis, we aim to improve forecast accuracy of a heterogenous au- toregressive model (HAR) by including market sentiment indicators based on Google search volume and Twitter sentiment. We have analysed 30 com- panies of the Dow Jones index for a period of 15 months. We have performed …
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Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business
… promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal and external factors that affect the demand patterns. It has also resulted from multiple levels of hierarchy that involve different groups in the organization as well as different methods and systems. …
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Assembling the crystal ball : using demand signal repository to forecast demand
Improving forecast accuracy has positive effects on supply chain performance. Forecast accuracy can reduce inventory levels, increase customer service levels and responsiveness, or a combination of the two. However, the further upstream in the supply chain, the more difficult it becomes to forecast …
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Understanding supply chain trade-offs through models and scenario planning with a focus on postponement
… and cost effective manner. Monthly demand and forecast data was analyzed to determine if there were in biases in the forecasts and to understand the relation between demand and forecast error through the use of a power law model. The forecast and demand data demonstrated a strong log-log …
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Analyzing the accountability, systems and efficiency of demand planning processes in a consumer products environment
… a consumer driven supply network, the value of forecast accuracy comes into question. Many companies push for faster cycle times and shorter supply chains, driving towards make-to-order production. These trends may appear to reduce the importance of forecasts. However, a closer look into P&G and …
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Analysts' Private Connections
… the same firm) issue more accurate earnings forecasts than “unconnected” analysts. In addition, the effect of private connections on earnings forecast accuracy is more notable for analyst pairs who are, on average, employed by smaller brokerages, and who are, on average, less skilled, less …
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Does Google Search Data Aid In Predicting Unemployment?
<p>The unemployment rate is typically forecasted in the literature using initial claims for unemployment, a lagged value of unemployment, and an autoregressive component. This paper looks to improve upon existing models by adding Google search data to traditional models using initial claims or …
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Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets
… Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction Markets for business decision-making. We configured a Prediction Market to …
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Strength and Weaknesses of NPV Analysis and its Application to Aircraft Value Modeling
… Net Present Value (NPV) technique as a mean to forecast aircraft values and the analysis of aircraft value forecasting accuracy. The main part of the examination is the evaluation of the actual quality of aircraft appraisals. The appraisal evaluation is based on historical forecast accuracy …
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