Global ETD Search
Search theses and dissertations gathered from participating repositories worldwide. Every result links back to the library that holds it. No account is needed.
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Showing 1 to 20 of 117 for “"Extreme value"”.
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Extreme value modelling of heatwaves
… to reduce the number of people affected by these extreme events. Extreme value theory provides a statistical framework for modelling extreme events. Extreme value models for temperature data tend to focus solely on the intensity, overlooking how long periods of hot weather will last and what the …
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Nonparametric smoothing in extreme value theory
… the modelling of non-stationary sample extremes using a roughness penalty approach, in which smoothed natural cubic splines are fitted to the location and scale parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution and the distribution of the r largest order statistics. Estimation is …
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Extreme value theory and its application to motor insurance
… research is concerned with the application of extreme value theory to motor insurance generally, and, in particular, to motor insurance in the Egyptian market. Since this theory was introduced there have been many attempts to use it in some insurance fields, but very few attempts have been made …
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Refining Value-at-Risk estimates: An Extreme Value Theory Approach
This thesis proposes new approaches to Value-at-Risk estimation using (1) Multivariate GARCH Dynamic Conditional Correlation volatility model with skewed Student’s-t distributions, (2) Bayesian GARCH model with Student’s-t distribution, and (3) Bayesian Markov-Switching GJR-GARCH model with skewed …
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Extreme Value Theory with an Application to Bank Failures through Contagion
… banking system in the past, and (ii) using the extreme value theory (EVT) to model the tail part of the shocks. The external shocks we considered in this study are due to exchange rate and treasury bill rate volatility. Also, an ARMA/GARCH model is used to extract iid residuals for this purpose. …
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Extremal Properties Of Markov Chains And The Conditional Extreme Value Model
Multivariate extreme value theory has proven useful for modeling multivariate data in fields such as finance and environmental science, where one is interested in accounting for the tendency of observations to exceed an extremely high (or low) threshold. Recent work has developed extremal models by …
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Extreme Value Analysis of Rainfall Events Over the Kennedy Space Center Complex
… to determine the occurrence frequencies of extreme weather events has gained a lot of recent interest due to concerns about the potential regional impacts from global climate change. Extreme-value theory can quantify the return frequency of the most extreme events, using climatologically …
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Extreme Value Analysis of Rainfall Events Over the Kennedy Space Center Complex
… to determine the occurrence frequencies of extreme weather events has gained a lot of recent interest due to concerns about the potential regional impacts from global climate change. Extreme-value theory can quantify the return frequency of the most extreme events, using climatologically …
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Application of extreme value theory to the calculation of value-at-risk
The main aim of the study was to test the applicability of published EVT-based VaR calculation methods to the South African market. Two methods were tested on a hypothetical portolio of South African stocks, using the standard backtesting technique.
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Scheduling of manufacturing systems based on extreme value theory and genetic algorithms
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 1995.
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Modelling flood heights of the Limpopo River at Beitbridge Border Post using extreme value distributions
… South Africa has lately been experiencing extreme weather patterns in the form of very high temperatures and heavy rainfall. Evidently, in 2013 tra c could not cross the Limpopo River because water was owing above the bridge. For planning, its important to predict the likelihood of such …
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Multivariate Extreme Value Theory with an application to climate data in the Western Cape Province
… noticeable that there is an upward trend in extreme weather conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of univariate and multivariate extreme value theory models on climate data in the Western Cape province of South Africa. Data collected since 1965 from five weather …
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Extreme value theory: Applications to estimation of stochastic traffic capacity and statistical downscaling of precipitation extremes
<p>This work explores two applications of extreme value analysis. First, we apply EV techniques to traffic stream data to develop an accurate distribution of capacity. Data were collected by the NHDOT along Interstate I93, and two adjacent locations in Salem, NH were examined. Daily flow maxima …
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Comparison of Bayes' and minimum variance unbiased estimators of reliability in the extreme value life testing model
… types of estimators for reliability using the extreme value distribution as the life-testing model. First the unbiased minimum variance estimator is derived. Then the Bayes' estimators for the uniform, exponential, and inverted gamma prior distributions are obtained, and these results are …
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Air quality applications of extreme value theory : return levels of extreme ozone events in Chicago and surrounding areas
… the Air Quality System is analyzed. Methods from extreme value theory are applied to calculate and compare 20-year return levels at 5 urban and 17 rural/suburban sites in Illinois based upon maximum daily 8-. hour average ozone concentrations from summer (JJA) for two periods (1992- 2002 and …
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The impact of estimation frequency on Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasts: an empirical study on conditional extreme value models
This study investigates extreme market events which occur in the tails of a distribution. The extreme events occur with a very low probability, but with significant consequences, which is what makes them of interest. In this study 20 years of data from both the S&P 500 and the JSE All Share index …
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Analysis of Discrete Choice Probit Models with Structured Correlation Matrices
… that relax IIA assumption are the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models, which allow dependency between unobserved factors. However, GEV models do not incorporate all dependency patterns, other choice behaviors such as random taste variation and repeated responses over time. The discrete …
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Modelling Extreme Forecast Errors in Wind Energy Using South African Wind Farms
… dispatch choices, and reserve allocation, extreme prediction errors in particular cause serious operational and financial issues. This study uses data from a collection of wind farms in South Africa to model shortterm extreme forecast mistakes in wind energy generation. The blended …
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Statistical methods for weather-related insurance claims
… on a low number of observations. Methods from extreme value theory consider the modelling of such events and may hence be beneficial. This thesis aims to develop statistical models for the relationship between damages, in particular property insurance claims, and weather events, based on daily …
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An Uncertainty-Based Approach to the Total Maximum Daily Load Development
… temperature data follow a Weibull and general extreme value distributions, respectively. The spatial-resolution uncertainty in simulated dissolved oxygen follows a general extreme value distribution. Duration curves are developed to examine the output computation-induced uncertainty. Duration …
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