Global ETD Search
Search theses and dissertations gathered from participating repositories worldwide. Every result links back to the library that holds it. No account is needed.
Results
Showing 1 to 20 of 31 for “"Expert judgment"”.
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Uncertainty Assessment in High-Risk Environments Using Probability, Evidence Theory and Expert Judgment Elicitation
… design is assessed by comparing the results of expert judgment elicitation to probability and evidence theory. This research shows how one type of monotone measure, namely Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence can expand the framework of uncertainty to provide decision makers a more robust solution …
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Assimilating Non-Probabilistic Assessments of the Estimation of Uncertainty Bias in Expert Judgment Elicitation Using an Evidence Based Approach in High Consequence Conceptual Designs
… review shifts to defining and selecting the experts, the elicitation process in terms of the components, the process phases and steps involved, and an examination of a probabilistic and a fuzzy example. This sets the stage for this methodology that uses evidence theory for the mathematical …
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Optimally aggregating elicited expertise : a proposed application of the Bayesian Truth Serum for policy analysis
… in inaccurate estimates of risk and uncertainty. Expert elicitation is a formal, structured method of obtaining subjective expert judgment in scenarios where objective data is unobtainable. It is designed to reduce the influence of ambiguity on expert judgment, meaning that analysts may use such …
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Optimal Management Of Biological Populations
… is more complex?" Can a manager use their expert judgment and flexibility to outperform simple models that make incorrect assumptions about population dynamics? As a first step towards answering this question, we conducted experiments where human subjects managed a hypothetical simulated …
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Desenvolvimento e neurociências: criação e validação do teste de cognição ético-moral para crianças
… item pre-selection, evidence collected from expert judgment, and evidence collected from the target population. This new measure presented, from the written item pre-selection to the final illustrated task, good psychometric qualities based on test content, and positive feedback from experts …
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On the Use of Grouped Covariate Regression in Oversaturated Models
… within each cluster, allow for the inclusion of expert judgment, and provide a probability of inclusion for each cluster.
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Combining human and machine intelligence for making predictions
… dealt with comparing forecasts based on human-expert judgment vs. (statistical) models in a variety of scenarios, mostly finding advantage of the latter, yet acknowledging the necessity of the former. Although computers can use vast amounts of data to make predictions that are often more …
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Identifying the limits of an integrated training environment using human abilities and affordance theory
… are often entirely based on subject matter expert judgment through surveys, which produce results that are linked indirectly and loosely to the ITEs. What is required is a repeatable, inexpensive, analytical approach to ITE assessment that bounds the potential of a given system to the …
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Examining Uncertainty and Misspecification of Attributes in Cognitive Diagnostic Models
… is required for CDMs, given that it is based on expert judgment. The current study uses a Bayesian approach to examine recovery of Q-matrix elements in the presence of uncertainty about some elements. The first simulation examined the situation where there is complete uncertainty about whether or …
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A multi-attribute method for ranking the risks from multiple hazards in a small community
… risk assessment, decision analysis, and expert judgment. Scenarios are constructed to show how the initiating events evolve into undesirable consequences. A value tree, based on multi-attribute utility theory, is used to capture the decision maker's preferences about the impacts on the …
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SYMBIOSIS, COGNITION, EMPATHY: SHAPING BEHAVIOR AND ENHANCING AI IN DIGITAL ECOSYSTEMS
… consistency between raters, and alignment with expert judgment, ultimately improving downstream AI model performance. Together, these studies demonstrate that integrating systems thinking with psychological insights provides insight into how platforms adapt, how discourse evolves, and how AI …
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On the evaluation of human error probabilities for post-initiating events
… are correct. ATHEANA quantifies HEPs through an expert judgment elicitation process.
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Calibrating Expert Assessments of Advanced Aerospace Technology Adoption Impact
<p>This dissertation describes the development of expert judgment calibration methodology as part of elicitation of the expert judgments to assist in the task of quantifying parameter uncertainty for proposed new aerospace vehicles. From previous work, it has been shown that experts in the field of …
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Fast But Right: Outbreak Surveillance And Foodborne Knowledge Infrastructure
… to be fast but right preserves a need for expert judgment amidst formal systematization efforts. In addition to examining broader public health infrastructure, the dissertation features analyses of two surveillance systems for foodborne disease: an historical examination of the National …
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Enhancing Auditor Expertise: Using Cognitive Load Theory to Examine a Reinforcing Feedback Loop Between Knowledge and Ability
… comprehending how accountants learn and develop expertise. The current expertise model assumes this ability is predominately static in the short-term and as a corollary that the influence of this interaction on performance is also essentially fixed. In this study, I draw on Cognitive Load Theory …
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Characterizing project scope attributes and their influence on the software estimation process
… their experiences of the estimation process. The experts characterized key steps involved in an estimation process and responded to a five-point scale survey to gauge the consideration of scope attributes, i.e., functionality, dependencies, and newness during estimation. Open-ended interview style …
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Improved integration of information to reduce subsurface model bias
… rely on multivariate statistics and expert judgment that overlook spatial information and data dimensionality. Thirdly, subsurface inferential workflows that utilize dimensionality reduction seldom provide repeatable frameworks that maintain model stability and are invariant to …
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An Integrated Risk Analysis Methodology in a Multidisciplinary Design Environment
… because input data is based on professional judgment. Additionally, there are uncertainties associated with the analysis tools and models. Both the input data and the model uncertainties must be considered for a multi disciplinary systems level risk analysis.</p> <p>This research synthesizes …
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Maintainability prediction for relational database-driven software applications
… In contrast, maintainability is predicted using expert judgment in practice where maintainability predictors relevant to relational database back-end are considered important. The results of applying prediction techniques on the data gathered for this research suggest Case Based Reasoning and …
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Modeling Ecological Risks at a Landscape Scale: Threat Assessment in the Upper Tennessee River Basin
… model robustness and assessed the influence of expert judgment by comparing my original approach to a quantile-based approach. Results suggest that experts were less likely to assign catchments to high-risk categories than was the quantile approach, and that 3 final risk rankings were …
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