Global ETD Search
Search theses and dissertations gathered from participating repositories worldwide. Every result links back to the library that holds it. No account is needed.
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Showing 1 to 12 of 12 for “"Ensemble forecast"”.
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A stochastic ensemble forecast model for geosynchronous relativistic electron fluxes
A stochastic ensemble model composed of three functional forecasting models has been developed to forecast >2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous (GEO) orbit. The REFM model is based on a statistical link between electron flux and solar wind speed using empirically derived linear filter …
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The Use of Central Tendency Measures from an Operational Short Lead-time Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System for Real-time Forecasts
… probabilistic methods to quantify hydrologic forecast uncer- tainty due to the magnitude of precipitation errors. Significant improvements have been made in precipitation estimation that have lead to greatly improved hydrologic simulations. However, advancements in the prediction of future …
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Analysis of uncertainty in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts
<p>Ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting has great potential for improving flood predictions and use in water management systems, however, the amount of data used and created with an ensemble forecast requires a careful and intentional approach to understand how useful and skillful the forecast …
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Optimizing and verifying an ensemble-based rainfall model
… error metric allows comparison of the stochastic ensemble of rainfall image forecasts to a single observation (radar) image. The error metric forgives position errors and provides a flexible framework for assessing how well the model works vis-a-vis a set of image measures, including the …
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Assimilation of lightning data by nudging tropospheric water vapor and applications to numerical forecasts of convective events
… This technique is applied to deterministic forecasts of convective events on 29 June 2012, 17 November 2013, and 19 April 2011 as well as an ensemble forecast of the 29 June 2012 event using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Lightning data are assimilated over the first 3 …
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Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks
… possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information reward associated with sensing paths, the mutual information is adopted to represent the influence of the measurement actions on the reduction of the uncertainty …
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Evaluating CFSv2 Subseasonal Forecast Skill with an Emphasis on Tropical Convection
… parameters and the impacts of ENSO on forecast skill. The errors in a small CFSv2 ensemble forecast saturate at a lead time of approximately 3 and 5 weeks for Z500 and CHI200, respectively. Skill over climatological forecasts is restricted to lead times shorter than 2 weeks. SST, which …
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Data Assimilation and Applications in Forecasting
… by data assimilationand specifically the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The first explores how spatial localization, an important method commonly used in the EnKF, can be extended to multiscale problems. Rather than using a single length scale when localizing, we construct a localized …
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Evaluating the 3D EnKF - VAR Hybrid Data Assimilation in GSI for Surface and Upper Level Analyses
… 3 dimensional analysis produced using the Hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Variational (VAR) Data Assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) System. The data assimilation ingests the 1 hour forecast High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and The Global Ensemble Forecast …
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Improving hydrometeorologic numerical weather prediction forecast value via bias correction and ensemble analysis
… research designed to enhance hydrometeorological forecasts. The objective of the research is to deliver an optimal methodology to produce reliable, skillful and economically valuable probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts. Weather plays a dominant role for energy companies relying …
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Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach
… prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water …