Backcasting and Forecasting Boreal Wetland Water Balances Using Weather Data in Reclaimed Landscapes

The oil sands mining industry in Alberta must return mined areas to a land capability equivalent to pre-mining conditions. The landscapes contain wetlands sustained by water balances reflecting prevailing weather conditions. Precipitation and evapotranspiration data that have been collected from six weather stations in three reclaimed landscapes were used to backcast and forecast meteorological trends. An autoregressive integrated moving average forecasting model was used to calculate trends in historical data and predict meteorological conditions until 2030 and their effects on wetland water volumes. Rates of annual evapotranspiration exceeded precipitation on an areal basis across the study area. Evapotranspiration gradually declined as landscapes aged. Water volumes in selected wetlands were quantified and analyzed in conjunction with the time series forecasts to support predictions on future water balance. Forecasts will contribute to the assessment of wetland persistence useful for future mine closure planning and provide complementary data for other water balance studies in the region.

Author dc:creator

• Patzer, Mark

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Ciborowski, Jan, J.H.

• School of environment and sustainability

Language dc:language.iso

en_US

Identifier URI

https://doi.org/10.25316/ir-19717

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:null:10613/28091