Explaining Variation Between U.S. States in the Trade Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world experienced significant reductions in normal economic activity, including international trade. Between 2019 and 2020, the United States saw the monetary value of its trade fall by about 12%, or $676 billion. Crucially, these effects were not evenly distributed throughout the country. My research addresses this variation. Existing research has studied differences between countries in changes to trade. Yet, the variation between U.S. states has not been explained. Based on research on country-level variation, I estimated the relationship between states’ changes to trade and a number of variables, namely the prevalence of certain industry sectors, reliance on certain trading partners, stringency of pandemic restrictions, pandemic severity, the trend of trade in the previous year, and changes to gross state product. Using regression analysis and Bayesian model averaging, I determined that the strongest predictor of a large drop in state exports or imports was conducting a large percentage of trade within the transportation equipment sector. More stringent pandemic restrictions were also found to have a negative relationship with exports. The possibility of a subsequent global pandemic provides a compelling reason for policymakers to better comprehend the economic effects of COVID-19. My research could provide insight into which regions and industries could be most adversely affected by a future pandemic, allowing government assistance to be more precisely targeted. It also contributes to understanding potential tradeoffs of pandemic-era restrictions on economic activity.

Grantor dc:publisher

University of Oregon

Year dc:date.issued

2026

Author dc:creator

• Schreck, Aidan

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Piger, Jeremy

• Economics
• Trade
• Pandemic
• Covid-19
• Recession

Statement dc:rights

• CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Language dc:language.iso

en_US

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/1794/33256

OAI record oai:identifier

https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/server/oai/request?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=dim&identifier=oai%3Ascholarsbank.uoregon.edu%3A1794%2F33256